Thursday, February 28, 2008

Where Do the Superdelegates Stand?

The Washington Post has kindly created a chart, mapping each states' superdelegates and where they stand in the race (for those who have declared their support for one candidate or another). Keep in mind, that these are not pledged delegates. They can change their mind at any time between now and the convention (as Congressman and civil rights leader John Lewis has shown).

Click here for the comnplete chart.

For those whose singleminded focus is on the Sunshine State, you can see that list here.

Locally, Tampa's own Janee Murphy (former chair of the Hillsborough Democratic Party) and Congresswoman Kathy Castor make the list. Sadly, no one from my home county of Pinellas made the cut (though Castor's district does take in parts of St. Pete).

Tuesday, February 26, 2008

RNC Polling on Strategies to Avoid Being Seen as Racist or Sexist

The RNC has been struggling under the perception that is sometimes crosses the line into racism (the RNC still operates under a court ordered consent decree that was imposed following a campaign to disenfranchise African-American voters in the 80s through a process known as "caging"). Apparently, they are so concerned about this perception that they are spending a lot of money on polls and focus groups to develop strategies to protect the GOP from "charges of racism or sexism."

After looking at the data, one Republican strategist called the task ahead "daunting."

Sunday, February 17, 2008

Poll Shows Obama Leading in Texas

Texas, along with Ohio, is part of Sen. Clinton's "firewall," but an American Research Group poll shows Obama leading in the Lonestar state.

A couple of qualifications - firstly, ARG was recently ranked as one of the less reliable polls (admittedly by a rival pollster). Secondly, this is the first poll I've seen that shows Obama leading.

The question now becomes - is this an outlier? Are we seeing a trend or a blip or just a bad poll?

We also saw a first, a Gallup tracking poll showing Obama with a stastiscally significant, national lead.

Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Schwarzenegger Raising Money for Bill Young

Bill Young is back in the money game. After some anemic fundraising results, our own Bill Young is having a Washington, DC fundraiser headlined by none of other the California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger - poster boy for pro-choice Republicans.

The event will take place at the Capitol Hill Club on Monday, February 25.

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Best Polls

SurveyUSA came up with what it considers a ranking of the most accurate polls during this election season. The fourteen most active polls are ranked according to accuracy.

Perhaps not surprisingly, SurveyUSA ranks at the top. Quinnipiac University, which polled extensively here in Florida, also ranks near the top. ARG (American Research Group) and Mason-Dixon, respected polls, both ranked miserably, however.

Monday, February 11, 2008

Clinton Firewall?

Not particularly relevant to Florida politcs, but after so much ink spilled over Giuliani's disastrous "firewall" strategy, I couldn't help but notic this statement in a New York Times article: "[Sen. Hillary Clinton] seeks to erect a fire wall for her candidacy in Ohio and Texas."


They must be angry as all get out at Clinton's campaign HQ in Alexandria, Virginina (a suburb of Washington, DC) to be hearing the language of Giuliani's failed campaign used in reference to her campaign.

At least her firewall is two states, not one.

The Superdelegate Question

Each of the two major parties has its own cross to bear these days.

On the Republican side, nothing short of a major coronary incident will stop Senator John McCain, but the GOP is failing to rally behind him - going so far to hand victories to former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee even after it became clear that McCain would be the nominee. If McCain's next finance report doesn't show total comparable to what Senators Obama and Clinton have been raising for the last year, expect a lot of bus tours from the Arizonan - because his campaign will be too cash poor to afford to fly Southwest.

On the Democratic side, the race couldn't be closer - and the possibility that the so-calledC "superdelegate" will determine the race.

I could offer my own opinion on the matter, but Tad Devine said it all far better in the New York Times on Sunday - "Superdelegates, back off" read the headline. I urge everyone to read it here.

For those short on time, I will offer this quote from the article to sum it up:

The superdelegates were never intended to be part of the dash from Iowa to Super Tuesday and beyond. They should resist the impulse and pressure to decide the nomination before the voters have had their say.