Thursday, November 19, 2009

The Two Primaries That Will Define the GOP

The two elections are approaching that will determine the future of the GOP. The first if is the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania and the Republican primary for the U.S. Senate right here in Florida.

If former Speaker Marco Rubio upsets Gov. Charlie Crist (something that suddenly seems much more real than it did even one month ago), the message will be clear - perceived moderates will be punished and "size" (an incumbent governor versus a former state legislator) is not protection.

The flip side is occurring in Pennsylvania. If Senator Arlen Specter - who switched parties when it became clear that the GOP primary electorate had moderates like him behind - successfully navigates the Democratic primary against Congressman Joe Sestak, that message is also clear - the Democratic primary electorate will accept and support former Republicans who run as moderate or conservative Democrats.

If both these races play out in the above fashions, look for more embattled Republicans facing primary challenges from their ideological right to choose apostasy over being "Scoffazza-ed" or, as we say in Florida, "Rubio-ed."

P.S. Thank you to all the well wishers - I did win both my races on November 3rd.