Eric Forcade's Blueprint

Eric Forcade is not, currently, a serious candidate for the 10th Congressional District. He is not likely to become a serious candidate for the 10th Congressional District.

But...

There is always a "but," isn't there?

Forcade is no Ron Paul or Marco Rubio - he will not be able to raise the kind of money you'd expect to need to defeat Bill Young.

So why the "but?"

Because Young is not young (he turns 79 tomorrow - happy birthday, Bill!) and has never been known as an aggressive campaigner - someone who enjoys the battle.

If Forcade is committed to running an aggressive and smart campaign that focuses on the the GOP primary base, he can cause Young some real trouble and potentially force young to tack to the right (something he has already been doing - though he still loves his congressional pork).

Republican clubs, tea party groups, facebook, and twitter and some aggressive doorknocking and just enough money to drop a little bit of targeted mail on some disaffected GOP'ers...

I don't actually expect Forcade to mount a serious challenge - even if he does everything right, it will likely require him the thread the needle to even reach the 30s. But, the blueprint exists - especially because no one really knows how Young will respond to an aggressive and early challenge ("early" being key, as well - Young almost certainly has it in him to for a hard campaign that lasts from mid-September through November 2nd, but it is not clear if he has the endurance for fight that lasts from January 1st through November 2nd).

Press Releases

I'm going to comment on something Peter posted here.

Peter implies (though does not openly say) that Mitch did something wrong or stupid here, but Kenneth is absolutely right. Any paper sent out by the campaign (including press releases) has to have the "paid for by" on it somewhere. While there may be some folks who will enjoy a little bit of schadenfreude to see Mitch stumble a little, I can't blame him for getting a little miffed at the paper's response.

His failure, as has been pointed out, was a failure to do his homework, as regards that particular publication. He should have seen that his candidate had been ignoring interview requests before including them on this press list.

Press releases and press conferences can, in my mind, take up too much of a campaign's time. I believe in sending out plenty of press releases, but I also believe that the average press release is just tossing something out and seeing if it sticks - and most things don't stick. That's why when I see kitchen cabinets spending a long time crafting the perfect language, I get frustrated - it's not a good use of time to spend a lot of it on something that will get minimal attention.

In fact, if you are commenting on something timely, it is better to get something out that quickly (provided it is on message) than to craft the perfect, pithy comment that doesn't get out until later in the news cycle.

Twitter

I have, at long last, joined Twitter.

But, I feel kind of bad about that.

I don't expect to be constantly twittering - even with only 140 characters, I don't have that much to say an hourly basis - but if you're interest, I'm at TBCampaignMgr.

My only posting so far is a necessarily brief musing on HD 58. Congratulations are in order for Rep. Michael Scionti (see photo), but on to the politics.

"Coach" Bob Henriquez held this seat before, if I recall.

Democratic candidates have been quick to jump in, but so far no Republicans. Scionti won handily in 2006, but that was also a wave election. We'll see if the Republicans make a good faith effort to contest this seat or not (the party is a little distracted, between Crist struggling to put down Rubio, Greer beset by scandal and rumor, and McCollum doing his usual thing, which is underachieving - so they might be forgiven for letting this slide).

Finally, don't expect Scionti to be gone forever - in fact, I would see him as a future candidate for statewide office in Florida or as a strong congressional candidate, should Congresswoman Castor run for higher office.

The Two Primaries That Will Define the GOP

The two elections are approaching that will determine the future of the GOP. The first if is the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania and the Republican primary for the U.S. Senate right here in Florida.

If former Speaker Marco Rubio upsets Gov. Charlie Crist (something that suddenly seems much more real than it did even one month ago), the message will be clear - perceived moderates will be punished and "size" (an incumbent governor versus a former state legislator) is not protection.

The flip side is occurring in Pennsylvania. If Senator Arlen Specter - who switched parties when it became clear that the GOP primary electorate had moderates like him behind - successfully navigates the Democratic primary against Congressman Joe Sestak, that message is also clear - the Democratic primary electorate will accept and support former Republicans who run as moderate or conservative Democrats.

If both these races play out in the above fashions, look for more embattled Republicans facing primary challenges from their ideological right to choose apostasy over being "Scoffazza-ed" or, as we say in Florida, "Rubio-ed."


P.S. Thank you to all the well wishers - I did win both my races on November 3rd.

Not Florida Related, But Just One of the Worst Things I Have Seen Come Out of a Political Campaign and That Includes the Time I Saw a Legislative Candidate Walk in a Parade While Wearing a Wet T-Shirt - What I Mean to Say Is That We Need to Shame Oxendine For Having Made This Monstrosity

Absentee ballots

Times have definitely changed and Election Day means less and less – or rather, Election Day is now more like Election Month. The first Tuesday after the first Monday in November is no longer the day you can vote, it is merely the last day you are allowed to vote.

Washington (state) has gone to 100% vote by mail. California sees roughly 1/3 of votes cast one week before the election and that is fast becoming the case in Florida.

Though Peter Schorsch recently claimed that “[he] was one of the very first consultants in Florida to recognize the value of tracking ‘absentee ballot requesters,’" I will have to be more than a little skeptical of such a claim – not that I can claim it for myself, but that I can remember the late, great Linda Hennessey coming down to South Florida in 2000 to educate several campaigns about working an aggressive absentee ballot campaign, which makes Peter’s claim more than a little unlikely, unless he was advising Al Gore or George W. Bush ten years ago.

But, absentee ballots do change everything.

They change when and how GOTV takes place.

For many smaller candidates, enacting a massive campaign to sign up people for absentee ballots does not make sense as an investment. The key investment is tracking and chasing those people who have already requested absentee ballots. They are VERY likely voters and it is foolish to let them slip away without some form of contact from your campaign.

Absentee ballots also change the timing of when direct mail starts – moving it earlier. Typically, you would backload a direct mail campaign – with one a week until the last 10-14 days, when you would drop four pieces. Now, with up to 1/3 of the vote gone 7-10 days before the election, do you change your mail schedule.
There are no easy answers here (believe me – candidates in Washington state still struggle to get the timing right).

Your most important investment

What is the single most important investment you can make if you are a local candidate running for office?

Your website? Nope.

Your yard signs? Heck no!

Your palm card? You’re getting closer.

It’s your voter file.

Without a voter file, you’re just driving in the dark without your headlights.

In its cheapest, a voter file is just an excel spreadsheet of voters in your district that you got from the county.

In its best form, you actually go to a voter file vendor, including the VAN (Voter Activation Network), Catalist, or Political Data Systems and get a real database of voters that you can manipulate into a useful form and that has additional, value added data, like precinct level NCEC data or data modeling functions.

With a good voter file, you can make the best of your time going door to door, asking for your support.

Without a good voter file, not only are you not making the best use of your time, you are not able to craft a realistic campaign plan that leads you from point A to 50% + 1 votes.