PPP Poll Shows Nelson in a Strong Position

The results of this poll aren't too surprising. Jeb, should he run, leads Nelson 44-49. This should be interpreted as most likely meaning "a tie, but with a slight advantage for Jeb."

However, Jeb is unlikely to run for Senate. He doesn't need to re-insert himself into public office ahead of jumping into the ring for the 2016 GOP presidential nomination. In fact, he is better off not generating the kind of paper trail of votes a Senator necessarily generates.

This leaves Lemieux, Haridopolos, Mack, and (someone I hadn't seriously considered before) Hasner in the mix.

As I suggested before, Connie Mack seems the strongest in these trial heats - though the margins are so small as to nearly inconsequential.

The only thing Lemieux and Haridopolos have going for them is that Mack may decide to take the money and run - by which I mean, stick with his safe congressional seat. Lemieux is now a former Senator and already hurtling towards public obscurity and Haridopolos is just two years away from being term limited into permanent obselescence. For them, it is 2012 or not at all. Mack can afford to party on for a few more years and then run as an elder statesman when Nelson retires or Rubio runs for president.