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Wednesday, February 24, 2010

The Voters Are Just Not That Into You Anymore

It appears that Crist is taking my advice and will be dropping a chunk of change on some comparison ads against Rubio. I'm sure we've all seen the latest Rasmussen poll that has Crist down 18 points to Rubio and sitting at under 36%, so I don't need to tell you about it.

Well, I kind of think this means game over in the Republican primary for Crist.

That's right - I don't see a way back for Crist. Rubio will continue to see his fundraising improve and the best Crist can hope for is a slow stagnation in his finances (we already saw signs of this in their last FEC reports), so Crist will have no chance to overwhelm Rubio with paid media in the summer. Yes, I think Crist is back on his game, but it's too late.

The comparison I would make is to Jon Corzine in New Jersey. Corzine lost not because voters didn't like him or objected to his position or action on a particular issue. No - voters had just reached a point in their lives where they were "over" that particular politician. There was really nothing Corzine could do to make them want to vote for him. It's the same with Crist in the GOP primary. If you look at the numbers, no one dislikes Crist. No one thinks he will do a bad job. They are just "over" him. And I don't think there is anything left he can do to make them fall in love with him again.

P.S. - The RGA is so worried about McCollum's lackluster campaign skills that they are dropping a six figure, broadcast in Florida now. This speaks volumes about their lack of confidence in him.

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