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Wednesday, February 10, 2010

What I Think Happens Next

It's been fun, commenting on the collapse of the once unstoppable juggernaut that was Crist for Senate, but now it's time to put my prognostication abilities on the line.

In other words, what would I do, if I were on Crist's team?

First, I would drop a poll in the field to see where, exactly, we are and where Republican primary voters see Crist as stronger than Rubio.

Once that's in, I would drop $1 million on statewide television, plus a heavy campaign schedule to complement the advertising.

After things have been allowed to percolate, it's time for a tracking poll. Not just who will you vote for, but who do you trust most on this hypothetical issue that might be Crist's best wedge? If the dial hasn't moved, then maybe Crist needs to ask himself what his options are.

I'm not saying that this tracking poll needs to show him winning, but it needs to start showing some positive movement.

And what are Crist's options?

Run as an independent - giving up whatever field infrastructure he might have had and count on his cash on hand (because he will find it much harder to raise money as an independent).

Test the waters for a switch the Democratic party and see if Meek can be beaten in the primary.

Prepare for a race against Bill Nelson in 2012.

Run for re-election as governor and tell McCollum "My bad, but go s---w yourself, you'll never be governor and you'll always be second best." (Note: while that might sound fun on paper, keep in mind that Crist could not transfer any of his Senate monies to a state race and would be starting from near zero in the money race).

Call it a day and take Carol to the Green Iguana and regale us with stories of how he was almost picked to be McCain's running mate.

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