Monday, January 28, 2008

Florida Now a Two Horse Race for the GOP

A recent Zogby poll shows McCain and Romney tied at 30% each, with Huckabee and Giuliani sitting well behind at %14 and %13, respectively.

This poll was taken over the three day period of January 24-26, so the effects of the Crist endorsement may not be completely reflected in this, however, there is no reason to think that any endorsement would dramatically upset the dynamics of this race.

And what are the dynamics? McCain had the momentum, now Romney has it. McCain is also hampered by his need to focus more on fundraising to replenish his dangerously low coffers, while Romney is free to campaign as he pleases and put up plenty of ads in our pricey media market (including strong buys in Miami).

The Crist endorsement is a solid pick up by McCain, but is not an earth shattering event. I have long felt that Crist's support was a mile wide and an inch deep. He is well liked, but not loved.

Even less so is the endorsement of McCain by Martinez. Especially since Speaker Marco Rubio is backing Romney and Rubio's influence among South Florida's Cuban voters outstrips that of Martinez.

Florida is coming down to the wire. If you haven't already voted, do so tomorow. If you filled out an absentee ballot, but haven't yet mailed it in, your best bet is to take the ballot (properly sealed) to your polling place and give it to one of the poll workers, because if you mail it in at this late, it will probably get there too late.

Even though we have been penalized by both major parties - and even though I have railed against the legislature for moving our primary so early and participating in a rushed election process that cheapens our Democracy and damages the hope for a real, national dialogue on the future of our country - despite all this, it is still important to vote.

Click here to find your polling place in Hillsborough County.

For Pinellas County, click here.


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