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Saturday, December 15, 2007

Rudy's Florida Situation Turns Desperate

According to a recent Rasmussen poll (admittedly not the service I trust most), Giuliani's firewall is in flames.

The poll has Huckabee leading with 27% and Romney not far behind with 23% and Giuliani slipping to third with 19% - an eight point drop since the last Rasmussen poll of Florida.

I mentioned that Rasmussen is not a poll I believe to be particularly reliable, but there is no reason to doubt the trend that this reflects - that the race is rapidly becoming a two person between Huckabee and Romney, with Giuliani's numbers dropping the closer a state's voters get to actually casting their vote.

3 Comments:

At 12/18/2007 12:18:00 PM, Blogger griftdrift said...

Hey Campaign Manager.

Up here in Georgia its been the conventional wisdom that Huckabee will eventually flame out. He has no ground troops up here. Is Florida any different? Does he have the infrastructure to carry his surge through to January?

On another note, I wanted to contact you about another matter but couldn't find an email on the front page. Can you shoot me a line at griftdrift at gmail dot com? Thanks!

 
At 12/18/2007 02:24:00 PM, Blogger Campaign Manager said...

I'm not so convinced that Huckabee will flame out - mainly because things could move so fast after Iowa (if he wins) that there isn't time for a flameout (though plenty of time to crash and burn if he makes the right gaffe).

Huckabee v Romney is the great question of momentum v infrastructure. We'll see. I would never write Romney off and give the two of them even odds to win the nomination (say 40% for each, with a 20% chance that Giuliani overcomes the odds and pulls it out).

 
At 12/19/2007 10:46:00 PM, Blogger Campaign Manager said...

By the way - I can be reached at tb_campaign_manager at hotmail dot com.

 

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