Friday, November 30, 2007

Tim Mahoney Off the Friday Line

Every Friday, the Fix puts together a top ten list. It's a list of those seats most likely change hands, alternating between House, Senate, Governorships, etc.

Since narrowly winning election in 2006, Democrat Tim Mahoney of our 16th Congressional District has been on that list.

With very little fanfare, on this Friday's line, Mahoney was dropped from the list. What does this mean? It means that the Fix does not think that this seat is nearly as likely to change hands, i.e., that the Republicans will re-capture it.


At 12/01/2007 03:38:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It is a testament to Mahoney’s hard work on behalf of his constituents - including crafting legislation to stabilize the homeowner insurance market, fighting for better veterans' benefits, and working to make Florida a leader in cellulosic ethanol production.

At 12/02/2007 02:23:00 PM, Blogger Campaign Manager said...

While I will refrain from such vociferous phrase of Mahoney - I haven't followed his legislative record closely enough - I will say that I always thought that the stories of his vulnerablity were vastly overrated.

The inability of the NRCC to recruit Joe Negron into the race (the inability to recruit the top candidates is becoming something of a trend for them), the advantage of incumbentcy, Mahoney's fundraising prowess, and the fact that the seat isn't all that Republican. The seat also has a very difficult geography, snaking all the way across the state, covering multiple media markets, and generally making it very difficult to campaign in.

Yes, Bush won 56% of the vote, but ultimately, that's not so much of a landslide that we should be surprised that a Democrat would hold it. Is is a Republican advantage? Yes, but not overwhelmingly. The voters in the 16th are not rapid, right wingers, foaming at the mouth - they are moderates who consistently re-elected a man (Mark Foley) who was widely known to be gay.


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