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Friday, November 30, 2007

Two Polls, Two Very Different Pictures of Florida
A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll showed Giuliani maintaining an overwhelming here in the firewall state, with Romney sitting 21 points behind and Huckabee not even in double digits.

An Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion Poll shows a very different race in Florida, with Giuliani clinging to nine point lead over the fast rising Mike Huckabee.

What does this mean?

Both polls were done before the St. Petersburg debate, where Huckabee played a very good hand and probably increased his national numbers. I tend to believe the second poll, because it seems clear that Giuliani is fading a little. Not sinking like Fred Thompson, but definitely seeing his numbers decline or stagnate. Huckabee, in contrast, is moving nowhere but up. That won't last - he has some skeletons in his closet, some ethics issues that wipe some of the shine off that folksy, honest demeanor - but for now, Huckabee is the ascendancy.

As a side note, all of this may prove meaningless if recent allegations of misuse of city funds to pay for his sexual trysts stick to Giuliani. Becuase if they do, "America's Mayor" will disappear beneath the surface of our political waters and be lucky to resurface as an occasional talking head on Meet the Press.

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