Young's Seat Makes the List... Again
The Cook Political Report's monthly look at Congressional seats once again lists our own Florida 10th and Bill Young as potentially open due to retirement.
In Cook's measurement, the seat is slightly more Democratic than the country as a whole. The metric used is PVI or presidential voting index. Essentially, it looks at the overall percentage that Bush got in 2004 and examines how the seat's electorate voted relative to that national number. In the case of the 10th, it is D +1 - which is to say that we gave Kerry 1% more than the nation as a whole. In a Democratic year (which 2008 will almost certainly be), that makes this seat a Democrat's for the taking.
As a result, there will incredible pressure from the NRCC (National Republican Congressional Committee) on Young to hang on.
However, whether or not he retires, the DCCC (Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee) will attempt to recruit a strong challenger, rather than be satisfied with the sacrificial lambs who have faced Young in recent elections. Even with Young running for re-election, 2008 is shaping to be as bad as 2006 for congressional Republicans.
A recent Rasmussed poll gives the Democrats an 18 point advantage on a generic ballot - that's an eight point gain for the Democrats over the same poll a month ago. A generic ballot is a lot different than voting out an entrenched incumbent and I am not the biggest fan of the Rasmussen Reports, but it does seem that, one way or another - retirement or defeat - Young's days in Congress are numbered.