Monday, December 01, 2008

CD 10 - The Prognostication Continues

Florida’s 10th CD got a little shout-out in Dailykos in a rundown of interesting races in Florida. As might be expected, State Senator Charlie Justice was touted as a candidate.

I actually think that the Democratic bench for this seat is fairly deep. There are a number of candidates who could provide a strong challenge – especially since a credible challenger to Sen. Mel Martinez will almost certainly win this district (Martinez’ numbers are quite bad and he is the incumbent Senator most likely to lose in 2010).

Richard Kriseman and Jamie Bennett are both looking at the St. Pete mayor’s race (Bennett seems like a near certainty to run), but either would be strong candidate. I happen to think that neither will run – Bennett has an excellent shot to win the mayor’s race and Kriseman is, perhaps, more likely to wait for Justice’s state senate seat to open up or run for a county office.

Likewise, 2008 nominee and Dunedin mayor Bob Hackworth got more votes than any Democratic candidate for the seat has in many years. Yes, he lost and lost badly, but an early and aggressive campaign (he didn't get into the race until barely six months out), stronger fundraising and a greater presence in St. Petersburg could turn a 20 point loss in 2008 into a nailbiter in 2010. Many of the upset winners in 2006, in particular, were challengers who lost in 2004.


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