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Tuesday, November 09, 2010

Jeb Bush's Dilemma

Jeb has indicated that he will not be running in 2012. No one really thought he would. 2012 would still be too early for the Bush name not to be an albatross around his neck.

Which means he is hoping to run in 2012

Which means, he needs Obama to win re-election. But he mustn't ever seem to want Obama to win re-election, or else he'll be branded a traitor and won't be able to win a Republican primary.

Look for Jeb to remain relatively quiet as the contenders jockey for the 2012 nomination. He won't want to endorse some who's "out there" - like Palin or Huckabee. He won't want someone who is too much against the established dogma, a la Gary Johnson. Definitely don't look for him to support (so long as the primary is truly contested) the strongest candidate in the race.

Someone solid, but not too strong. With some good conservative credentials. Tim Pawlenty would be an example. He's got some blue collar, fiscal conservative "street cred," but also has the charisma of a twenty year old can of pickled herring. Also, I could see him picking Congressman Pence (if he runs for president, as he's been hinting he will - though some say he could run for governor of Indiana instead) - whose conservative credentials are nearly unmatched, but who, seriously folks, is never actually going to win or anything as crazy as that.

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