Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Eric Forcade's Blueprint

Eric Forcade is not, currently, a serious candidate for the 10th Congressional District. He is not likely to become a serious candidate for the 10th Congressional District.


There is always a "but," isn't there?

Forcade is no Ron Paul or Marco Rubio - he will not be able to raise the kind of money you'd expect to need to defeat Bill Young.

So why the "but?"

Because Young is not young (he turns 79 tomorrow - happy birthday, Bill!) and has never been known as an aggressive campaigner - someone who enjoys the battle.

If Forcade is committed to running an aggressive and smart campaign that focuses on the the GOP primary base, he can cause Young some real trouble and potentially force young to tack to the right (something he has already been doing - though he still loves his congressional pork).

Republican clubs, tea party groups, facebook, and twitter and some aggressive doorknocking and just enough money to drop a little bit of targeted mail on some disaffected GOP'ers...

I don't actually expect Forcade to mount a serious challenge - even if he does everything right, it will likely require him the thread the needle to even reach the 30s. But, the blueprint exists - especially because no one really knows how Young will respond to an aggressive and early challenge ("early" being key, as well - Young almost certainly has it in him to for a hard campaign that lasts from mid-September through November 2nd, but it is not clear if he has the endurance for fight that lasts from January 1st through November 2nd).


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