Monday, October 23, 2006

Davis Moving Up in the Polls?

Recent polls show Congressman Jim Davis' numbers moving dramatically closer to frontrunner, Attorney General Charlie Crist. Back in early October, Rassmussen Reports had Crist leading by 16 points and also had Crist sitting over the magical 50% mark with 54%. Two recent polls show Crist failing to break over 50% and one of shows him in a statistical dead heat with Davis.

A Mason-Dixon poll released last week showed Crist at 50% and Davis at 39%. While these number is unlikely to cause panic at Crist HQ, it does show his support softening.

A Quinnipiac poll, taken more recently, shows the two candidates in a statistical dead heat, with Crist at 46% and Davis at 44%. This poll, if not an abberration, will cause sleepless nights for Crist's campaign manager.

Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, speculates that "the large swing among independent voters may also reflect a national Democratic wave that seems to be taking hold around the country." He also notes that Davis' campaign seems to have "hit a chord with women." After having been tied with Crist among women voters, the Democrat now leads by 16 points.

Personally, I don't believe Davis is within two points of Crist, but there is no doubt that a significant number of Crist voters have left him and are now undecided. This is due to two factors.

The first is that Crist has been flip flopping a lot lately. The second, is that Davis has now been on the air for a while and voters are learning more about him and liking what they hear. That said, Davis has not locked up those undecided voters who have moved away from Crist and it remains to be seen where they will wind up on Election Day.


At 10/30/2006 02:39:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Davis is going to lose because Crist is the real Democrat in the race. He supports a woman's right to choose and will work with the teacher's union to protect smaller classrooms and real sex education - not that ridiculous "abstinence only" stuff. Plus, he's a strong supporter of gay rights.


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