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Thursday, April 20, 2006

Quinnipiac Poll Results - What Do They Mean?

Neither Democratic candidate for Governor, Rep. Jim Davis nor Sen. Rod Smith, have the kind of statewide name recognition enjoyed by both Attorney General Charlie and CFO Gallagher, but the most recent numbers have the Democrats in a statistical dead heat with the Republicans, with approximately 1/4 of voters undecided. So what is happening?

What is being depicted in this poll is not so much support for either Davis or Smith - who one would expect to be blown out of the water by the GOP candidates in a state where the Republican Party controls all branches of government, especially when the GOP has been extremely effective at monopolizing so many sources of camapign contributions. What is being depicted is the Florida version of the national mood. Voters are expressing extreme ambivalence toward the Republican Party and their candidates.

"It may be that the slight up tick for Davis and Smith reflects the general national negative tone for Republicans," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

On the other hand, the Washington Post's political blog, The Fix, has taken Florida off its list of governorships most likely to change hands, primarily because of the fundraising gap between the two parties.

Davis and Crist (see photo) remain the frontrunners for the nomination in their respective parties.

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