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Saturday, August 12, 2006

Polls Show AG Race, Democratic Gubernatorial Primary Tied; Pres. Bush Drag on GOP Ticket

A McLaughlin & Associates poll taken between August 3-7 shows the race for Attorney General between Democratic Sen. Walter "Skip" Campbell and former Republican Congressman Bill McCollum to be a dead heat, with a statistically insignificant lead for Campbell. He leads McCollum, who has twice before unsuccessfully run for statewide office, by 28% to 27%. Almost half the electorate - 45% is undecided. Another McLaughlin poll, taken in late July, showed the same results.

In the Democratic primary for Governor, the same poll shows Sen. Rod Smith edging into within one point of Congressman Jim Davis. The poll shows Smith forging ahead, with Davis maintaining a 21% to 20% lead. In the July McLaughlin poll, Davis lead 25% vs. only 11% for Smith. However, the rapid change could be due to the volatility of an electorate with so many undecideds and the fact that Smith went on the air early.

Nationally, President Bush's numbers, which had been creeping back up - even approaching 40% in some polls - has dropped back down to 33% in a recent Associated Press-Ipsos poll. Bush's numbers are most likely to hurt GOP candidates for federal office - including in our own 9th Congressional District, but also in the 22nd in Broward and Palm Beach Counties and in the 13th around Sarasota.

2 Comments:

At 8/15/2006 01:06:00 PM, Blogger fiona said...

Being a Republican in Broward is a disadvantage, President or no

 
At 8/16/2006 06:49:00 PM, Blogger Campaign Manager said...

But it is possible (and fairly common) to run statewide as a Republican and lose Broward county, but win the election.

 

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