The Campaign Manager

2011-02-11T14:18:00.002-05:00

Rubio Makes First Moves towards 2016 Presidential Run

When Senator Marco Rubio hired Terry Sullivan to be his deputy chief of staff, he also made his first move towards securing the 2016 GOP presidential nomination.

Terry Sullivan is not a big name in Florida politics. He is not particularly known as being big on "the Hill." He is a political strategist, pure and simple. More to the point, he is a South Carolina political strategist. Even better (for Rubio's political ambitions), he is very closely tied to Tea Party favorite, South Carolina Senator Jim DeMint (whose early endorsement of Rubio helped him gain the necessary traction to pull away from Charlie Crist).

What does this have to do with running for president? Easy, after the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary is the South Carolina primary. It's one of the traditional early primary states. And one that might, under normal circumstances, have trouble voting for a latino, especially one whose parents were born in another country.

The Iowa caucuses are all about organization. If Rubio struggles there, it will be because of the influence of evangelical protestants (though he has been working to shore up that side of things, as well - suggesting to evangelicals that he is protestant, while assuring Catholics that he is not apostate and has not left the church).

New Hampshire very well might appreciate a fresh, charismatic face, like Rubio. They like fiscal conservatives, and though Rubio's actual history of being a profligate spender (in both his legislative career and personal life), he has successfully re-cast himself as a fiscal conservative.

This leaves South Carolina as an unanswered question/problem for a Rubio candidacy.

Make no mistake - Terry Sullivan wasn't hired to serve the people of Florida. He exists to serve Rubio's political ambitions.

2011-02-08T14:58:00.002-05:00

Jeb 2012

I have been thinking a lot about Rich Lowry's National Review piece about Jeb Bush's chances if waits to run for president in 2016, instead of 2012. I cheerfully admit that I have bought into the conventional wisdom that Jeb is making the right choice in keeping his powder dry for 2016 - Obama is a heavy favorite for re-election, so 2016 will represent an open seat, plus the bad memories of his brother's failed presidency will have all but completely faded away.

Normally, I find Rich Lowry to be an unctuous and embarrassingly groveling sort of guy. And I think that National Review has fallen on hard times, intellectually speaking, since the late, great William F. Buckley left the scene. While I might have been on the other side of many issues from Buckley, but especially since rising above the racism and anti-semitism of his early career, I almost always respected his mind. None of his successors have been worthy to even shine his shoes.

But...

Lowry struck a chord with me. Since accepting that 2012 was a bad idea for any Bush to run for president, I have not bothered to delve below the surface of that assertion. But maybe I - and maybe we all - were wrong (except for Lowry - which might be a sign of the apocalypse).

Would Rubio really step aside for Jeb if he saw an opening? Will Bush really be a better name than Christie or Jindal or Pence (who will probably be running from a perch as governor of Indiana, instead of just being a Congressman, by then). Now that the questions have been raised, the answers don't seem to clear.

If this is so, and since Jeb seems committed to skipping out on 2012, the question now becomes whether the man who once ruled Florida with a near iron fist will swiftly become an irrelevant afterthought. He will still be a factor as an endorser in GOP primaries in Florida, but his time as a major player, across the board in Florida and nationwide, might be coming to end. In which case, perhaps Lowry's assertion struck a chord because I hope that he's right (after eight years of running Florida's budget and economy into the ground and creating long-term, structural crises for us and his successors to clean up, I'm ready to see him become a non-factor).

2011-01-23T23:28:00.003-05:00

Redistricting - "Inside the Lines"

Whatever you may think of Peter Schorsch, he is well plugged into the Tampa Bay scene.

His new website, InsideTheLines, aims to be the new clearinghouse for redistricting info.

2011-01-23T21:03:00.002-05:00

Boehner Flexes His Party Leadership Muscles

The election of Reince Priebus was a minor setback for the newly crowned Speaker, John Boehner. He didn't have a whole lot of skin in the game, in the sense that Priebus will be a willing partner with Boehner. I only mean that Boehner was openly and strongly supporting a different candidate.

Not a big deal, but I suspect it was something to do with who got picked to deliver the Republican response to President Obama's State of the Union address. The smart money was on Marco Rubio to deliver the response - who surely would have jumped at the chance to further raise his national profile. But when New Jersey Governor Chris Christie turned it down, they didn't go to Rubio. They went to Paul Rubio, a congressman from Wisconsin.

My personal suspicion is that this is Boehner letting Mitch McConnell, the GOP leader in the Senate, know that the House (which is controlled by the Republicans) is where it's at - not the Senate (where Democrats still run things).

2011-01-19T16:52:00.003-05:00

Dear NRSC: We Would Take You More Seriously If You Bothered to Learn How to Spell the Name of Our State

The National Republican Senatorial Committee issued the following tweet as the first salvo in their effort to unseat the Sunshine State's senior senator, Bill Nelson:

NRSC Stmt: We look forward to debate on Sen Nelson's record of putting Obama’s reckless govt agenda over Floridia

I would take their efforts more seriously if it weren't clear that they had assigned an intern the task of taking down Nelson. But, as a note for future NRSC statements - it's spelled "Florida" not "Floridia."

2011-01-19T12:39:00.002-05:00

Rubio and the Tea Party Caucus

The fact that Senator Rubio is waffling on whether or not to join the Tea Party Caucus is hardly surprising.

Ideologically, Rubio is not the insurgent type - he never has been (his primary against Crist, notwithstanding). He's always been part of the establishment and his ideology is much that of an establishment politician.

But he's also an opportunist and he was glad to use the Tea Party mantle to undermine Crist. However, we should not forget how quickly he abandoned that mantle once he had taken a nearly insurmountable lead over Crist in the primary.

The Tea Party was not something deeply felt for Rubio - it was a necessary tool to get himself elected (and considering that state of his personal finances, getting elected was about the only thing standing between him and bankruptcy), but that's all.

Now, he wants to be president. Or vice-president. And he has to walk a fine line, because this will not happen if he becomes the official face of the Tea Party. But part of his popularity comes from his association with the Tea Partiers.

So right now, Rubio and his political team are trying to figure out how to keep close ties to the Tea Party grassroots, while managing not to officially joining the main Tea Party org in the Senate (the Tea Party Caucus) - and he has to do this without giving the impression that he is dissing the Tea Party now that he's a Senator.

2011-01-10T14:52:00.002-05:00

The Talent Search

There's a been a lot of talk about George LeMieux having an informal meeting with GOP media strategist, Fred Davis. It's attracted more attention than Mike "The Appeaser" Haridopolos sitting down with Tampa strategist, Adam Goodman. Adam is a good name in Florida circles, but Davis has got a huge national profile, so that's what all the buzz has been about.

Davis famously did McCain's reasonably well received "Celebrity" commercial. Of course, he's now most famous for his web ad for Carly Fiorina, the famous "Demon Sheep" commercial. "Demon Sheep" was, to say the least, less well-received. It was considered laughable, confusing, and a bit of a distraction for the campaign (who had to answer questions about her media strategy, instead of talking about her qualifications for a while). But it also drew a lot of attention to the campaign and maybe they decided it was worth it, in the end.

In any case, if LeMieux is considering hiring Davis, it shows he understands that he is coming into this race from a position of relative weakness. Someone like Davis is almost guaranteed to help him run a paid media operation that operates "out of the box." I get nervous when people talk about working "outside of the box," but when you're in LeMieux's position, the best way to lose is to run a standard campaign, because all things being equal, in that scenario, he loses. He has to shake things up and stand out in some way.

One of Fred Davis' quirky ads could turn him into a laughingstock, or it could create the kind of daylight between himself and Haridopolos and Mack that he so desperately needs. Mack can run a traditional campaign that capitalizes on a name that is well, if not deeply, beloved in GOP circles. Haridopolos can flex the almost dictatorial powers he's going to have in Tallahassee to wring endorsements and support from establishment power players across the state. LeMieux can't do either of these things, so he will need to do something to stand out.

Maybe a crazy ad campaign is just the ticket. At the very least, it might be worth a try.

2011-01-08T19:26:00.002-05:00

Mary Bono Mack Scandal to Have Reverberations in Florida?

My early prognosis for the GOP race for the right to challenge Bill Nelson gave Connie Mack a slight edge over Mike "The Appeaser" Haridopolos and George "Fair Weather Friend" LeMieux. Not because of anything Mack's ever done, of course, just the luck of the draw. And early polling bore that out, too.

But all this guessing, more than a year and half before the primary, is just that - guesswork. Because so much can change.

I have noted that Mack has a reputation for being a bit of a lightweight and some people still remember when he was in charge of scheduling party appearances for "Hooters" girls. When he married fellow Congresswoman Mary Bono Mack (R-CA), it seemed like too much of a bad thing. She had a reputation for loving to party and an unsubstantiated reputation for using recreational drug use (not a deal breaker for the constituents of her home town of Palm Springs).

Well, she got caught in some compromising conditions, to say the least. Rather than go into detail, I'll direct you to this article, or better yet, check out what Wonkette has to say on the matter.

If this has legs, it could very easily make a statewide race much more difficult for her husband, providing an opening for LeMieux or Haridopolos (or a fourth candidate) to exploit.

It also points out a big of a gap in the field - the absence of a family values candidate. LeMieux is the moderate (though trying not to be - moderation is the kiss of death in a GOP primary) and Haridopolos is the candidate of the Tallahassee establishment. Connie Mack, with his dad's famous name, is sort of the candidate of Old Florida Tradition.

LeMieux could try and reinvent as the family values guy, of the tiny sliver of the electorate who knows who he is, half know him as the guy who stabbed Crist in the back and half know him as the right hand man to a governor that a lot of folks still suspect of being secretly gay or bi-sexual. Neither of these things scream "family values" to me.

Likewise, Haridopolos trying to take that mantle sounds too much like when Tom Gallagher tried that. Granted, Haridopolos doesn't suffer from Gallagher's hard partying history (at least not so far as I know), but it does remind me of when Steve Forbes decided to run for president as a culture warrior and, frankly, no one bought the act.

Any thoughts? Who could step up from the GOP back bench as the family values candidate?

2011-01-05T11:13:00.002-05:00

NGP Trial Started Yesterday

This is very much insider baseball, but a lawsuit against NGP, the largest vendor of fundraising and finance management software for Democrats, started today.

The non-partisan, political technology firm Aristotle filed the lawsuit, alleging that though NGP claims to be a partisan firm, helping only Democrats. Artistotle, which does help organizations affiliated with both parties filed a lawsuit claiming that this is complete bunk - that NGP actually helps a large number of very Republican PACs.

Some of the evidence presented included a 2004 agreement with Capital Advantage to provide NGP software to PACs and "right-leaning" 527s. Some PACs utilizing NGP supported Republicans over Democrats by as much as 95% to 4%.

Insider baseball, like I said, but NGP has been a major player in Democratic vendor circles and have had access to a lot of sensitive info. This is a big deal.

2010-12-29T13:32:00.002-05:00

The Next Republican Party of Florida Chair - & What It Says About Scott

I have no idea who's going to be the next chair of the Republican Party of Florida. To be quite honest, all the options appear fairly mundane and pedestrian and none of them inspire fear in me (as a Democrat) or particular respect (as a strategist). It's not that I actively disrespect any of them - they just all seem pretty "blah" to me. There's only one fresh face among them and no one who really stood out in the last election as having done something significant.

But what has struck me is how this battle is showing up the political weakness of Gov.-Elect Rick Scott.

In all the back and forth, we have yet to see any sign of Scott, the highest ranking Republican elected official in the state of Florida, having any real influence on the process at all. Now maybe he's got a lot of behind the scenes clout that we're just not seeing, but I doubt it - mainly because his transition has been so ham-handed that I don't think his team could organize a discreet, behind the scenes operation.

My question for you is - would Crist or Jeb have let themselves be so excluded from the process? Hell no! Crist forced the wildly incompetent and possibly criminal Jim Greer down the throats of the RPOF - twice, in fact.

Scott is probably staying out of this because he knows he wouldn't be listened and would risk a very public defeat/rebuke. His recommendation would be considered a nominal favorite, at best, and even then, a simple whisper in the right couple of ears by Tallahassee puppet master Haridopolos would kill it entirely, if Haridopolos thought it would help his quixotic quest for the U.S. Senate. On the other hand, if either Rubio or Jeb came out strongly for a candidate right now, that candidate would be an overwhelming favorite.

2010-12-28T15:44:00.002-05:00

Some Things to Look in the New Congressional Districts

Right now, Tampa Bay (by which I mean Pinellas and Hillsborough Counties) is basically represented by the 9th, 10th, 11th, and a even a tiny fraction of the 12th Congressional Districts.

If the new redistricting amendments are followed (and even thought they passed overwhelmingly, Haridopolos is determined to circumvent the law, if he can), there will be some changes in the makeup of these seats.

I have heard nothing that leads me to believe that Tampa Bay has grown enough to warrant receiving one of Florida's two new congressional seats, so it will all be about re-arranging the chairs.

In order to comply with the new rules, the 10th district, represented for the past forty years by Bill Young, will have to change. Right now, it is the entirety of South Pinellas, except for a small chunk in Gulfport and South St. Pete. Then it snakes over to take some suburban communities outside of Tampa.

For me, I don't see any reading of the new constitutional amendment that would allow that. In the past, to preserve the 10th for Republicans when Young retires (and the man has been taking a gov't paycheck and healthcare for 2/3 of his working life now), they cut out African-American communities north of 22nd Ave in Gulfport and in South St. Pete and gave those to the already staunchly Democratic 11th District, based in Tampa. In return, Young was handed some "white flight" communities outside of Tampa.

Any reasonable, non-partisan redistricting would make this seat wholly within Pinellas and take everything in the county, starting from somewhere aroud Clearwater - though I couldn't say for certain whether it would include Clearwater or begin just south of that city.

The 9th would not be allowed to take the unnatural, wriggly form it now does. My first thought is to say that it loses all that space out towards Plant City, but that a lot of that is made up by the extra votes it gets from Pinellas (I see Palm Harbor and Dunedin and maybe even Clearwater being fully within the 9th). In order to make it compact, I would guess it travels north, rather spiraling east towards Polk.

The 11th would take some Hillsborough precincts currently within the 9th and 12th and would, as I said earlier, lose all attachment to Pinellas. The 12th, I envision as no longer including any precincts in Tamp Bay.

If I'm right, what does that mean?

The 9th becomes a little more competitive, but still trends Republican. If Bilirakis continues to keep a low profile and maintain his reputation for not being a leader on anything important or controversial, I don't see much reason to suspect that he won't hold that seat for at least as long as his father did. If he retires or does something visibly stupid or impolitic, the right candidate could topple him, but that would most likely be someone who held county or state office, because the municipalities in the district just aren't high profile enough to generate someone with a high enough profile.

The 10th becomes what it has been for years - a Bill Young's sinecure. However, the seat has always been 50/50 in most respects, with a Democratic registration advantage. That advantage will only grow stronger with the changes. When Young's time run out, neither Karen Seel nor Bill Foster will have it as easy as Young has had it.

Likewise, the solidly Democratic 11th becomes more competitive. You would expect Kathy Castor to hold the seat, nonetheless, but she will have to work harder. And when she takes the plunge and runs for statewide office, the general election will be almost as bloody as the primary, because the GOP will see a slim opportunity for a pick up.

2010-12-21T16:04:00.002-05:00

PPP Poll Shows Nelson in a Strong Position

The results of this poll aren't too surprising. Jeb, should he run, leads Nelson 44-49. This should be interpreted as most likely meaning "a tie, but with a slight advantage for Jeb."

However, Jeb is unlikely to run for Senate. He doesn't need to re-insert himself into public office ahead of jumping into the ring for the 2016 GOP presidential nomination. In fact, he is better off not generating the kind of paper trail of votes a Senator necessarily generates.

This leaves Lemieux, Haridopolos, Mack, and (someone I hadn't seriously considered before) Hasner in the mix.

As I suggested before, Connie Mack seems the strongest in these trial heats - though the margins are so small as to nearly inconsequential.

The only thing Lemieux and Haridopolos have going for them is that Mack may decide to take the money and run - by which I mean, stick with his safe congressional seat. Lemieux is now a former Senator and already hurtling towards public obscurity and Haridopolos is just two years away from being term limited into permanent obselescence. For them, it is 2012 or not at all. Mack can afford to party on for a few more years and then run as an elder statesman when Nelson retires or Rubio runs for president.

2010-12-21T10:05:00.002-05:00

The Republican Presidential Bench Gets Worse and Worse; or, Haley Barbour Defends Pro-Segregationist Groups

Democrats fear him. Republicans adore him. Many consider him the best Republican strategist of his generation - above even Karl Rove and on a level with Lee Atwater.

And he appears to have jumped the shark.

He could continue to play a version of Nixon's "Southern Strategy" - sure it would alienate African-American voters, but he never planned on getting any African-American votes anyway. He had his flaws as a candidate - actually, he had many - but his savvy and the national network of "chits" he's built up on the right could have been enough to make him a legitimate candidate for the presidency. An underdog to be sure, but still with a potential path to victory based around rallying white male voters around his "good ole boy" folksy style, abetted by the kind of hardcore political knife fighting he was born knowing.

All he had to do was not to praise a pro-segregationist, white supremacist organizations from the Jim Crow era in glowing terms.

Really, it seems like a pretty low bar to hurdle. From the outside, you'd assume that there was almost no way that would come up in conversation anyway.

Yet there it was. Somehow, in the middle of a fluff piece being written for the Weekly Standard, a mouthpiece for testing out Republican policies, he managed to drop some kind words for the White Citizens Councils of the 50s and 60s.

Unbelievable.

A lot of folks said an overweight, unreconstructed Southerner with a long history as a top lobbyist for drug companies and tobacco companies - who even lobbied on behalf of Mexican companies for the United States to make additional concessions on NAFTA - could never make it all the way. I never believed those folks. I knew Haley to be a smart and ruthless campaigner who knew how to win. This was the man who defeated an incumbent governor in Mississippi in 2003. In 1994, Newt Gingrinch may have been the face of the Republican revolution, but the real mastermind behind it was then RNC chair Haley Barbour.

How could he have been so stupid?

Don't get me wrong - I'm glad (though I fear his self-destruction leaves a lot of room for Sarah Palin to get nomination - angry white men who wanted to send a message, but felt unsure of Palin's ability to win might easily have gravitated to Barbour; now there are fewer GOP candidates with the profile and smarts to take on Palin in a primary).

2010-12-08T11:16:00.004-05:00

The Republican Primary for Senate: Early Thoughts in 2012

After last November's spanking of Democrats, Republicans are lining up to take on Florida's senior Senator, Bill Nelson. These folks are hoping that 2012 is the fourth consecutive "wave" election (2006 and 2008 were Democratic wave elections and this year was a Republican one).

This seems unlikely, but it also seems like a reasonable wager to make (of course, Kendrick Meek probably thought that after seeing the carnage inflicted on the GOP in Florida in 2008, running for Senate seemed like a good idea - funny how fast these things can flip on you).

Senate President Mike Haridopolos is so far the only major figure to officially throw his hat in the ring. This is basically the only political office open to him - he's smack dab in Bill Posey's congressional district and Posey isn't giving it up anytime soon. Haridopolos will bring some solid fundraising strength in-state, but is unlikely to have the national connections that his two possible primary opponents will bring and since the last state budgets he presides over are likely to be complete disasters - well, let's just say he'll have some baggage. Mike's plan will have to be to fundraise early and hit up the big Tallahassee players for $2000 checks now - while he still have influence as a sitting Senate president. By the time the 2012 primary comes around, he'll be a lame duck and they won't be as eager to write those checks unless he does the work now to build up a solid lead. It's not easy to make the leap from state senate to the U.S. Senate - you may be well known in the hall of the Capitol in Tallahassee, but no one in Florida, outside of your district has the slightest idea who you are. Plus, starting out one's senate campaign by being found guilty of some fairly egregious ethics violations? Not so good, Mike. And with his low name recognition, those ethics charges may wind up being the first thing most voters ever hear about him.

Congressman Connie Mack IV has been making noises about running for Senate for a while now. He's got his congressional war chest and the experience raising hard, federal contributions that Haridopolos doesn't. He's also got the name. His father was a much liked Senator and the younger Mack won a series of races for the state house and then Congress based on that name. No one has ever accused Rep. Mack of being the brightest bulb in the store, but he'll be able to attract enough of the political talent and raise enough money to be a factor and you'd be foolish to write him off in a primary. He's not the cold-blooded political knife fighter that Haridpolos is, but he's got better name recognition and he knows the game. If he has a weakness, it's that he's not considered the smartest congressman and that both he and his wife, California Congresswoman Mary Bono-Mack, have a little bit of a reputation for being liking to party just a bit too much.

Finally, there's soon to be former interim Senator George Lemieux. When Crist appointed him Senator, he got a taste of power and now he wants more. Unfortunately, most of his apparent advantages have the tensile strength of papier-mache. His first strength is that, well, he was Senator for almost two years. But, I am willing to take a bet that most people in Florida still haven't heard of him. Sure, he tried hard. He appeared at every ribbon cutting he could and his press shop was emailing and faxing press releases like there were going out of style. But he still has c--p for name recognition. He's got tons of ties Tallahasse - he knows names of the first born children and marriage anniversaries of every lobbyist and check-cutter in in that town. But... all those ties are tainted (in so far as Republicans are concerned) by their origin: his one0-time close relationship with Charlie Crist. Those GOP'ers who actually know who he is can be divided into two camps: those who don't trust him because he was part of Crist's inner circle and those who don't trust him because he stabbed Crist in the back. Finally, he never could shake off a reputation as a bit of moderate when he was in the Senate (moderation being the kiss of death in Republican primaries). He did his best to come across as fire-breathing reactionary, but it never really worked. It didn't help that the Obama political team kept referring to him as a Republican Senator they could work with. It wasn't quite a hug, but neither is it helpful in a Republican primary to have that meme floating around.

There you have it.

My money, assuming something the dynamics don't significantly change, is on Connie Mack stumbling into the nomination as sort of a middle ground that no one really loves, but who no one dislikes and whose baggage is of less recent vintage than Haridopolos' ethics violations and Lemieux's "Crist factor."

2010-11-09T15:01:00.002-05:00

Jeb Bush's Dilemma

Jeb has indicated that he will not be running in 2012. No one really thought he would. 2012 would still be too early for the Bush name not to be an albatross around his neck.

Which means he is hoping to run in 2012

Which means, he needs Obama to win re-election. But he mustn't ever seem to want Obama to win re-election, or else he'll be branded a traitor and won't be able to win a Republican primary.

Look for Jeb to remain relatively quiet as the contenders jockey for the 2012 nomination. He won't want to endorse some who's "out there" - like Palin or Huckabee. He won't want someone who is too much against the established dogma, a la Gary Johnson. Definitely don't look for him to support (so long as the primary is truly contested) the strongest candidate in the race.

Someone solid, but not too strong. With some good conservative credentials. Tim Pawlenty would be an example. He's got some blue collar, fiscal conservative "street cred," but also has the charisma of a twenty year old can of pickled herring. Also, I could see him picking Congressman Pence (if he runs for president, as he's been hinting he will - though some say he could run for governor of Indiana instead) - whose conservative credentials are nearly unmatched, but who, seriously folks, is never actually going to win or anything as crazy as that.

2010-11-08T14:52:00.002-05:00

Democrats Need to Aim Low

At every political level, Democrats need to think smaller (at the policy level, they actually need to think bigger and establish clear differences between themselves and the GOP). The DNC, for example, over the next decade, needs to have two big goals - re-elect Obama and win state legislative seats.

The other stuff - Senators, Governors, Congresspersons - that's all the sexy stuff, but Dems need to focus on the scut work, the down ballot stuff that allows for future shifts.

At the local level, the Pinellas DEC shouldn't even be thinking about taking back Bill Heller and Janet Long's state house seats, nor Charlie Justice's state senate seat. They shouldn't be thinking about Harris' old county seat.

The only thing they should be thinking about are upcoming municipal elections.

Let me explain:

When the GOP won big last week, they won at a crucial time. Between legislative chambers they flipped and governor's mansions they took, they will control the outcomes for a significantly higher number of congressional seats in the upcoming redistricting process.

And there is, for Democrats, simply no way around this. Even if another Democratic wave should come along and sweep them back into power down the road, the underlying issue will remain.

There's an old saying, "it's not about who casts the votes - but about who does the counting." These days, it's not about what voters want, so much as who draws the lines.

Of course, in Florida, we recently passed Amendments to make the redistricting process open, impartial and transparent (not that Tallahassee won't still try and subvert that process), but nationally, the best thing Democrats can do to improve the long term odds of success is to start building state legislative majorities ahead of the 2021 redistricting.

Locally - and this is something I have harped on in the past - Democrats need to stop shooting for moon. Putting untested candidates up for county and legislative races that cost at least $150,000 to run is not a good way to win. Right now, too much of the Democratic bench consists of well meaning and hard working people who have neither an electoral base nor experience. This is especially true in the northern part of the county.

The failure to systematically organize and canvass for candidates for city council and mayor in cities like Dunedin and Clearwater represent the biggest failures of the last couple of years. In 2009, for example, a single mailer to Democrats and a concerted effort to institute volunteer phone banks and some canvassing for Deborah Kynes could have provided the the less than 200 additional votes she needed to win. It wouldn't have been as sexy as cheering for Charlie Justice in an uphill fight against Bill Young's millions, but would have been something where the DEC's limited resources could have made a difference.

You may complain that many of these local races are ostensibly non-partisan - I say, that when you have a mano y mano and there is only one Democrat in the race, then the DEC can fairly step in.

2010-11-03T18:40:00.003-05:00

Hindsight

Hindsight is 20/20, as they say, and I won't pretend that I recognized all these things at the time. But, with it's benefit, we can now see some things that should have been done differently.

There's no need to go into detail as regards what wrong at the legislative level - I think we can all agree that incumbent retention and challenger recruitment was handled badly. Too many seats went unchallenged or were left too late. Ron Saunders did not fundraise or recruit in a sufficiently strategic manner and, towards the end, the state party was stepped in. However, by that time, too much of the campaign season had lapsed. Locally, folks like Charlie Justice should never have been allowed to leave a state senate open and Long and Heller should never have been allowed to leave it late.

The field campaign was too much in the hands of Organizing for America (OFA). Unfortunately, OFA was focused on so-called "surge" voters - the big vault of infrequent voters who came out for Obama, but were not otherwise regular voters. While the theory sounded good and the work done with these voters will bear fruit in 2012, it was never going to do much for Democratic candidates up in the midterms.

Tellingly, the most surprising Democratic victories last night - difficult wins in swing states - were by Harry Reid in Nevada and Michael Bennet in Colorado. In each case, the Senate campaigns took control of the field away from OFA and went after traditional midterm voters, running classic campaigns, with central control at the state level.

Sink spent the spring and summer, keeping a low profile and focusing on stockpiling money for the air war to come.

In retrospect, this was the wrong way to go. It made sense at the time. In fact, it's probably what I would have done.

But it was clearly the wrong thing to do.

She should have been more aggressive during the contentious Scott/McCollum primary. She should have considered launching some real attacks at that time and definitely should have done more to define herself. Undecided voters really didn't know her, which left her vulnerable to Scott's misrepresentations. Though she had plenty of cash, she was never going to be able to match Scott on the air, so shepherding resources in order to try and match him would never work.

You can also say that when the voting public decides to trust a man who robbed billions from the taxpayers over a respect public servant, maybe nothing would have worked.

In any case, time to settle back and enjoy the cuts to education, public transit, healthcare to come.

2010-11-02T08:52:00.003-05:00

Why Dismantling the Fifty State Program Was a Bad Idea

Howard Dean was excoriated by then DCCC Chair Rahm Emmanuel in 2006 over what he considered the wastefulness of the fifty state program, wherein the DNC paid state parties to maintain at least full time staff in every state. Rahm's objection was that it drew resources away from strategic districts to fund staff in areas that Democrats would never win.

In my opinion, over the course of 2006 and 2008, Dean was proved right.

Unexpected districts became viable Democratic targets, in part because infrastructure now existed in areas that had previously been ignored.

Tim Kaine, the current DNC Chair, did not completely roll back the fifty state program, incorporating some of its ideas into was is now known as Organizing for America or OFA. But he did pull back from the admittedly expensive proposition of funding full time staff across the country.

And it seems to be biting Democrats in the ass right now. We are seeing a reverse of the last two cycles, where incumbents Democrats who were never thought to be in danger are now facing their greatest challenges in years. Had the fifty state program still been in place, there would have been greater infrastructure in place to counteract this trend, as well a greater likelihood of detecting the danger early.

The national committees would not typically do much polling in these supposedly safe districts, but a qualified field staffer might get a sense from the ground that something is happening - because a good operative senses these things on a gut level as the small things (conversations, meetings, scanning local media) fall into place in the recesses of his or her mind and finally comes together in an educated "hunch" - and other qualified operatives will take those sort of hunches seriously (I spent years as a political researcher and when I went to my manager and said, "I can't tell you why, but I think 'X' is about to become an issue in this race," good manager listened and added a question on that issue on their next poll and readied a response).

In the absence of a fifty state program, too many incumbents were caught flat footed in October by the sudden realization that they could lose.

One also wonders whether a "67 county" program by the Florida Democratic Party to put full time, year round staff in every county could have averted some of the potential losses the party faces at the legislative level?

2010-11-01T18:07:00.002-05:00

Jeb for President Starts Up Again

The new meme is that Jeb Bush will be drafted to run in 2012 in order to thwart a Palin nomination.

Everyone has generally assumed that Jeb intends to lay low, while still carefully tending to his base of corporate donors, occasionally appearing to make statements on a few key issues, and then emerging as the frontrunner for the GOP nomination in 2016.

He has of course, denied wanting to be president. And if you believe him, we should meet sometime, so we can discuss my wealthy Nigerian friend who needs your help transferring a large sum of money.

But it is entirely possible that the, for lack of better word, zeitgeist within the Republican establishment will pull him into a presidential race earlier than expected.

He would be an instant frontrunner in a Republican primary, buoyed by the Bush name (still garbage among the electorate at large, but gold among many primary voters) and the huge sums of secret and unregulated corporate dollars that would be spent on his behalf. He would even be able to pull some evangelical support away from Huckabee and Palin.

2010-11-01T08:19:00.002-05:00

What to Expect Next Year

There may still be some surprises, but one thing appears certain - the GOP will hold more seats in Congress next year, they will continue to hold a strong majority in the Florida legislature (and may even achieve a veto-proof, supermajority), and the Florida Senate will replace the Florida House as the most radical body in Tallahassee (virtually all the moderate Republicans who once slowed down some of the radicalism are termed out this year and will be replaced by radical Republicans).

We can expect Senate President Haridopolous to try and gut education and infrastructure to pay for some sort of tax cut. The ostensible reason will be to improve growth and create jobs, but there is little doubt it will fail miserably. That strategy has been used for over a decade now and has been an unqualified failure. In the late nineties, the Clinton economic boom and then the real estate bubble that grew in George W. Bush's two terms help paper over what was going on in Florida, but when things went pear shaped, we had nothing to fall back on.

Funny story - as much as rich folks like a good tax cut, it turns out that good paying jobs are actually more closely tied to educational achievement and investment in infrastructure. That's why Florida is home to the HQ of 12 Fortune 500 companies, while the much more highly taxed and regulated New Jersey is home to 21 Fortune 500 company headquarters. It's also why "Taxachussetts" has an unemployment rate of 8.4%, while Florida's is 11.9%. It's why Wikipedia left St. Petersburg and moved to a more heavily taxed and regulated community in Northern California.

But, with radical new leadership, we can hardly expect such things to interfere with Tallahassee's plans for the rest us.

Nationally, the big question is when the Tea Party enthusiasm ebbs. And make no mistake, it will ebb, because the GOP establishment has no intention of giving them what they want. So-called Tea Party candidates who win tomorrow will be almost universally marginalized, except for those that can be co-opted (Marco Rubio is likely to be among the latter) into the usual backroom deals and politics. Lip service will be given to Tea Party ideals, but the actual business of governing will be handled in conjunction with the usual corporate lobbyists. Former Senator, master of pork barrel spending, and now uber-lobbyist, Trent Lott, will be far more influential than figures like Sharron Angle, Allen West, and Ken Buck, even if they win the election.

The results will, in time, be similar to what happened to moderates, disappointed that healthcare legislation did not go far enough and Latinos, disappointed that immigration reform was stonewalled in the Senate. They did not become Republican (just as Tea Parties will not become staunch Dems), but they did become disaffected in this election. Whether this will happen in time for 2012 or whether insensate anger against Obama keeps them in line for one more election, is up in the air, of course.

2010-10-18T09:30:00.002-05:00

Early Voting Starts Today!

Absentee voting has already begun, but early voting at either the Supervisor of Elections office or satellite offices, begins today.

Check here for Pinellas County locations or here for Hillsborough.

Hillsborough County has set up a large number of satellite offices (view the list here). Locations include many county libraries, plus the Plant City Hall.

Unfortunately, long time Pinellas County Supervisor of Elections, Deborah Clark, does not see it as her responsibility to make voting any easier than is absolutely necessary. As a result, she only does the bare, legal minimum required and has early voting only available at her three offices. In the past, she has defended herself by talking about support for absentee voting, but frankly, I really don't see her doing much more the statutorily required minimum. Apparently, as a Republican elected official, she doesn't see high turnout as a plus.

2010-10-11T10:26:00.003-05:00

Rubio Tied for Most Contributions Above Legal Limit

Marco Rubio is tied with Senator Crapo of Idaho for the most illegal contributions this cycle, in terms of taking contributions over the maximum allowed ($2,400 in the general election).

2010-10-06T17:27:00.002-05:00

Meek on the Wrong Track

Kendrick Meek should not be attacking Charlie Crist. He should not be running ads proclaiming that he is the "real Democrat" in this race.

But surely the polls say that Crist is eating deeply into Meek's base support? Doesn't it make sense to go after Crist and consolidate that support?

No - it doesn't actually.

Meek's campaign has fundamentally misread the problem.

From the beginning, his campaign has insisted that once voters know who Meek is and what he stands for, his numbers move up considerably. The problem has always been one of introducing Meek to the electorate.

Yes - that's true. Up to a point.

What Meek's campaign has failed to address is the "electability" issue - the question of beating Rubio.

Democrats are not supporting Crist over Meek because they don't know that Meek is "real Democrat" in the race. Our school systems may not be the best in the country (thanks for undervaluing education, Tallahassee! heckuva job Cannon/Thrasher/Haridopolous/Rubio), but we're not complete idiots. Floridians know that Crist is, at his heart, a slightly right of center moderate.

We also know that MarcoRubio is a pleasant sounding sociopath with a record of being completely unable to control a budget (both personally and governmentally).

Meek, if he wants to consolidate the support of the Democratic base, needs to focus all his energies on Rubio. The base will flow to whoever they see as best able to challenge Rubio. But Meek has hardly even addressed Rubio.

Until he does and as long as Crist has the good sense to aim some of his fire at the profligate Rubio, then Meek will continue to lose a significant percentage of Democrats to Crist.

2010-09-21T08:34:00.002-05:00

Thank You For Pointing This Out

One of the frustrating things about watching Marco Rubio's ads touting fiscal responsibility has to do with his own record in that regard. I'm not even talking about his personal struggle with debt and inability to balance his own checkbook (something that a lot of folks struggle with - particularly in these tough times). I am not even talking about the unusually high rate of expenditures on his own campaign.

No, I am talking about the fact that when he was Speaker of the Florida House, he repeatedly submitted budgets that were bloated, pork-filled, and larger than any previous budgets in Florida's history. He was the ultimate profligate spender of other people's money.

How he became an icon of fiscal conservatism when nothing in his history shows anything of the kind is beyond me.

So, I will do something I never thought I'd do. I'm going to thank Charlie Crist... for pointing this out. I suspect it's too little too late (he should have been running these ads back in April so that the truth - that Rubio is wasteful spender - would be the dominant meme, rather than the completely false image of Rubio as a fiscal conservative).

Here's Charlie's ad:

2010-08-25T13:24:00.002-05:00

And Winner of Last Night's Primary Is... Alex Sink!

I suspect that the DNC is ultimately pretty happy with what happened on primary night in Florida.

There is no clear path the Senate victory for the Democrats. Meek is still in third place, but has sufficiently strengthened his support among Democrats to pull Crist into second place.

This suggests that Meek still faces a bridge too far in terms of reaching 40% (likely to be the win number in a three way race, unless either Meek or Crist's support completely collapses - which could happen). Crist may have hit his high water mark a few weeks ago, when it looked like the far less palatable (to many Democrats) Greene was leading the Democratic primary.

So how can the DNC be happy with this?

Because the Senate race was never their main concern.

It would be nice for them, but they are much more concerned about Alex Sink. And Sink is sitting pretty.

Rick Scott winning the GOP primary for governor was a blessing. Yes, Scott could dump another $50 million into television ads, but he's already done that - and all he managed was to get something less than 50% of Republicans to hold their nose and vote for him. He can still use him money to attack Sink (much as he did to McCollum), but his brand is damaged and the law of diminishing returns is surely setting in, in terms of the value of his spending.

Sink will benefit from Crist's ability to draw out independents and moderate Republicans, many of whom will look at Scott and run towards Sink.

She will also benefit to the extent that Meek can energize Florida's African-American voters.

The other big race I've been following is up the I-4, where Congressman Alan Grayson found his opponent - Daniel Webster.

Grayson is running an aggressive, well funded campaign, but in 2008, he ran a few points behind Obama and is now running in a much tougher environment.

Webster has no money in his account, so the big question is, will the right-leaning netroots - folks like Eric Erickson over at Red State - jump on the bandwagon and help him raise big bucks? I don't expect Webster to match Grayson overall, but I expect to pull in some big money online and have more than enough cash on hand to run a competitive race.

The other big question is whether Webster still has "it." Like many state legislators in Florida, his former legislative seats were so gerrymandered, that he rarely had to run a strong campaign to win. Does he and his team know how to win tough races? Love him or hate him, but Grayson showed in '08 that he knew how to cross the finish line. Webster, despite his long history as an elected official, cannot make the same claim in recent memory.

2010-08-05T16:18:00.002-05:00

Kirk Pepper's Head

No one seems to know who is making these (I'm guessing it is not actually FLGOP politico Kirk Pepper), but episode three is my personal favorite.

2010-07-16T16:45:00.003-05:00

Rubio's Burn Rate

Marco Rubio's fundraising numbers got everyone's attention. And they were remarkable - I haven't looked down the list at everyone, but I wouldn't be surprised to learn that he was the leading fundraiser of any Senate candidate in the country during the last quarter.

It's probably a good thing, because it distracted attention away from his burn rate - spending more than 90% of what he raised.

His campaign was ready for the questions - explaining to Politico that they had to spend $1.3 million on television to defend themselves in April, near the beginning of the cycle, and that they had invested heavily and prudently in staff and infrastructure.

All of which is perfectly valid, but still... $4 million in just three months? Is this Rubio's idea of being "fiscally conservative?"

Ok. That was a low blow. But the fact remains that there is just no excuse for this kind of burn rate. This was the quarter where, if you don't face a contested primary, you stockpile as much cash as you can for fall television. And Rubio did not have a contested primary for most of the quarter. What would he have done if Crist has stayed in the primary? The logic behind the campaign's explanation leads to the conclusion that they would have spend $2.5 million more than they raised, under those circumstances. And when you put it that way, the explanation looks clearly ridiculous.

No. The only conclusion one can reach is that Rubio has got too many consultants and too much staff.

Crist is wisely keeping his dollars and maintaining a tight rein on expenses. Granted, he has the advantage of the governor's bully pulpit to get free media, but he has done exactly what all the smartest campaigns do - saved his cash.

Raising money gets the headlines in summer - but it's cash on hand that actually buys your media for the fall.

More locally, I looked up the numbers for my home district - the tenth congressional.

I saw that Charlie Justice had raised $289,779 and thought to myself, "That's no good - he needs to be raising more like $350,000 - $500,000 this quarter!" Of course, I was misreading the report - he had raised $289,779 for the cycle. He only raised $34,216.99 for the quarter and has $38,447 cash on hand.

Bill Young stepped it up this cycle and raised $222358 for the quarter - stockpiling 3/4 of that for a total of $629,609 cash on hand, giving him a cash on hand advantage of better than 16 to 1.

Defeating Young will, quite simply, take both a well funded field operation and a well funded television advertising campaign. At present, it looks like Justice will have the money to run a bit of cable, but not much more.

2010-07-14T10:45:00.002-05:00

The Palin Question

Before getting around to my next big, blog-related writing project (which may not be for a little while if my paying writing projects keep getting in the way), I wanted to point something out that seems to be overlooked by some folks when talking about Palin.

If you follow the "literature" on Palin, you know that biggest question consuming folks out there today is "will she run for president?"

The folks who say no argue that she has no desire to leave the bubble of adulation and financial renumeration that surrounds her today - and she would certainly have to leave that bubble if she wanted to run for president.

The argument goes on to say that she is primarily a celebrity/reality star, not a politician these days.

While I don't disagree, I think there is another factor being overlooked - and that is whether he adoring fans, who see her as a potential savior of American values, will accept it if Palin does not run for president in 2012?

Would they see a failure to take up the torch and save America from Obama (and also from GOP frontrunner Mitt Romney) as sufficient reason to abandon her?

While perhaps she can't win, can she also not not run?

I'm not trying to provide a definitive answer here, just raising the question of whether the Palin fans will still follow her so rabidly if she doesn't step up to the plate?

2010-07-12T12:45:00.001-05:00

Rubio's Plan

Marco Rubio’s record haul of $4.5 million (narrowly eclipsing the single quarter record of $4.3 million set by Charlie Crist in his first quarter of fundraising) clearly expands his options.

It also helps Rubio shift the narrative slightly. After dominating the media spotlight earlier this year, Rubio has lately been haunted by a media meme that asks, essentially, “where’s the excitement gone?” The appearance of a hotly contested Democratic primary between Meek and Greene and Crist’s move to run as an NPA put Rubio into a strange new position – an establishment candidate struggling to with a lack of oxygen in the media environment.

But there are some advantages to being an establishment candidate. Rubio is benefitting from his status as a tea party favorite – and also from hard-liners furious with Crist’s refusal to commit political suicide – but let’s not forget that Rubio is also a deeply embedded figure in the Tallahassee and South Florida political establishment. A former Speaker of the Florida House, a former lobbyist based in South Florida… Rubio has the credentials and “chits” to raise big bucks and he is cashing in his chips right now.

In a three way race, he can, conceivably, win with 38-40% of the vote. His campaign staff is almost certainly betting on Meek winning the Democratic primary and consolidating some of the Democratic support that is right now splitting between Crist and Meek – just enough to prevent Crist from becoming the de facto choice of Dems.

That scenario would suggest that he could simply continue to appeal to the tea party crowd on the ground and use his financial resources to make judicious attacks on Crist and Meek. I suspect that his negative ads will have a secret agenda – for example, an ad attacking Crist on flip-flopping on abortion would actually be intended not to drive pro-lifers away from Crist (Rubio will probably already have a firm lock on those who primarily vote on that issue), but to sow doubt among pro-choice moderates that Crist is really on their side.

The classic example of this is when Gray Davis in California attacked Bill Riordan for flip flopping on abortion. The ad was not intended, as it overtly suggested, to criticize Riordan for being pro-life, but actually to sow doubt among a pro-life GOP primary electorate that he was pro-choice. It worked – Riordan lost his primary and Davis won easily against in the general (though he was removed in a special election the next year).

2010-06-29T18:26:00.004-05:00

Is Marco Rubio the Next Howard Dean?

The Rubio campaign is indeed wishing that they had not peaked so early. Had things not gone so swimmingly for them earlier this year, things might not be going quite so pear-shaped for them now. If they had peaked AFTER the filing period, Crist might not have gone the NPA route and could have found himself stuck in a GOP primary with no good path to victory over Rubio.

But that’s not what happened.

There is still plenty of time and opportunity for Rubio to mount a comeback, but political prognosticators are already predicting a Crist victory (Fivethirtyeight says that the Senate is projected to have .6 “Crists” in it next year – which is a roundabout way of saying that he’s giving Crist a 60% chance of taking this seat) and Rubio is finding that the enthusiasm he once engendered is slipping away.

I am not, of course privy, to Rubio’s internal polling (as a Democratic operative, I wouldn’t expect to share this with me), but their strategy suggests that they are hoping to secure the GOP base (minus some moderates), cede true independents to Crist, and hope that Crist and Meek/Greene sufficiently split the Democratic so that the far right base is enough to win Rubio a plurality (barring an epic collapse wherein either Crist or Meek/Greene drop below 10 points – no one is likely to get an outright majority).

I say this become Adam Smith at the St Pete Times said that he “saw little sign of him reaching beyond tea party activists and archconservatives.”

Rubio himself said, “Truth be told, I'm running against two Democrats in this election. Only one of them will admit it,”

Both these statements imply that Rubio’s campaign believes that something along the lines of 35-40% will be enough to win in the current circumstances.

This is not the first time we’ve asked whether Rubio might struggle with losing his insurgency status. I have wondered for a while if Rubio’s campaign might not resemble Howard Dean’s in some critical ways.

These days, if Howard Dean is remember for his ’04 presidential campaign, it is for “the scream” (though he is more likely to be remembered as a highly successful DNC chair than for any aspect of his presidential campaign anymore).

But we shouldn’t let “the scream” distract us from the real factors that led to his downfall. Remember, he screamed only after blowing a seemingly insurmountable lead in the Iowa caucuses (he ultimately finished third in Iowa).

Dean was an insurgent candidate who rose based on significant strength in online contributions and support from the netroots/activist base. He rose in clear contrast to candidates who projected a more “moderate” image.

Sounds like a certain former speaker of the Florida House to me.

Dean’s meteoric rise was hampered by a failure to adjust to frontrunner status. His campaign had been designed to come from behind against the establishment. When he took the lead – he became the de facto establishment, winning the support and endorsement of key Democratic constituencies. And his operation did not know how to handle the change and couldn’t close the deal.

Does that also sound like Rubio?

It’s too soon to be sure – and Rubio does have something Dean didn’t have – the cautionary tale of the collapse of the Dean candidacy.

2010-06-24T14:54:00.001-05:00

Finally – Some Late Thoughts On That Meek-Rubio-Crist Thing Going On ‘Round Here

I’m coming very, very late to this game, but let me put my two cents in as regards the Meek-Rubio-Crist matchup. Specifically, the question of what might happen down the road as Crist seems to be hovering up an awful lot of Democratic support that might otherwise have gone to Meek.

The biggest question these days has a couple of components. The first is whether Meek can sufficiently solidify the Democratic base vote to get his numbers back up to a competitive level. In a one-on-one match up with Rubio, a number of polls have Meek competitive.

Don’t get me wrong – we were seeing numbers that gave Rubio a real advantage. But we were also seeing numbers that pointed to a narrow, but viable, path to victory for the South Florida Dem.

Initially, there was an expectation by many that Crist’s move to NPA (no party affiliation) status would make Meek’s path to victory a little wider. The position (and it was not irrational one) was that Meek, simply by retaining a good hold on the Democratic base vote, could win with something around (or even under) 40%.
In this scenario, Crist draws from Rubio and Meek, but his long history as a Republican meant that he would draw more from the latter than the former. With the registration edge that Democrats enjoy in Florida, Meek could sit back and let demographics do the rest.

Hasn’t quite worked out that way, though, has it?

Instead, virtually all of Crist’s growth has been from the Democratic side of the table. In fact, it seems almost certain that Crist is getting more support from Democratic voters than Republican voters.

A couple of factors are at work here.

First of all, Crist has always been well liked. He has always made an effort to be cordial and polite to prominent Democrats. These efforts are being paid back, with either explicit or de facto cover from many leading figures letting Democratic voters know that it’s “ok” to like Crist.

This situation is amplified by the fact that many Democratic officials now see Crist as the main hedge against extremist GOP elements in the legislature and do not want to drive him the other way.

I am constantly surprised by the number of Democratic pols and senior staff who, in private conversation, tell me that they, personally, like Crist a lot. Most are keeping quiet, but the undercurrent is there. And keeping quiet also means that many folks are not giving their supporters a strong signal that they should support Meek.
However, this is not all about Crist.

Meek’s efforts to get on the ballot via petition was a monumental effort, but it seems that something was lost in the process.

Part of this was not his fault. His achievement was unjustly swallowed up by the news cycle’s obsessive focus on Rubio’s rise relative to Crist.

Nonetheless, I suspect that something got lost in the mix on Meek’s end, as well. I am not now working nor have I ever worked on Meek’s campaign. I do not have inside information and I will happily accept correction, if I am wrong. But my suspicion is that there was a failure to properly integrate this effort into their other programs – field, new media, etc. My reasons for this is that I think that 145,000 petitions should result in some massive movement in terms of volunteer recruitment and list building and provide a strong base from which to, if not expand one’s polling numbers, at least stay above the mid-teens in a three way race. Yet here we are.

What next?

I foresee two basic scenarios that might play out.
Crist’s support has always been accused of being soft – a mile wide and an inch deep (which is part of the reason why it crumbled in a primary against Rubio). His support could collapse among groups now giving him the benefit of the doubt (especially if and when Crist says where he would caucus in the Senate and who he would support for Majority Leader) Democrats could come home and this could turn into a more traditional, two person race between Rubio and Meek, with Crist acting the part of spoiler and getting between 15-25% of the vote.

Democrats could not come home and significant number of leading Democrats, including prominent elected, begin throwing their support behind Crist. This could be for a few reasons – including Meek losing out to Jeff Greene or Meek simply failing to get his numbers up. The DSCC could cut Meek off and we might see a sort of shadow operation – probably a 527 – led by some well-known Democratic strategist, spring up and provide the sort of support a major party candidate would normally get from state and national party structures, particularly in the creation of a field infrastructure (the lack of which is Crist’s biggest structural weakness right now).

2010-06-24T11:52:00.002-05:00

Rubio Confuses "Rational Thought" with "Flip-Flopping"

Marco Rubio is confusing stubborn, willful blindness with principled leadership.

He is trying to characterize his insistence on continuing to support offshore drilling as pragmatic, principled stand that sets him apart from “flip-floppers” like Charlie Crist.

Well, Rubio – you know who else is a “flip-flopper?” The people of Florida. Until recently, a majority of Floridians supported offshore drilling.

Funny how things change.

And, Mr. Rubio, that's not "flip-flopping" or "waffling" or whatever belittling designation you want to give it.

Actually, it's a sign that someone is applying common sense to their decision making process. When you change your position based on new facts that contraindicate your old views, you are not “flip-flopping.”

What Rubio would, in Crist, like to characterize as “a flip-flop,” is, in this instance, nothing more than a rational human being making use of the gifts God gave him – using his eyes to see the damage oil is doing to priceless treasures and his brains to come to the conclusion that the costs are not worth it.

Rubio says that drilling will happen anyway – that we might as lay back and try to enjoy it.

Well, Mr. Rubio, let me suggest to you that it is also true that there will always be people who will speed – but that’s not reason to get rid of speed limits around elementary schools.

Ok.

I’m done ranting now. In the next posting (which will come sooner than they have lately, I promise – this is a busy time of year for me and blogging doesn’t actually pay the bills), we will get back to providing semi-dispassionate analyses of Florida elections.

2010-06-17T15:23:00.003-05:00

Congressman Joe Barton (R-Petroleum) Thinks We Owe BP An Apology

If I could steal a line from Joe Barton Would Like To Apologize - "JOE BARTON WOULD LIKE TO APOLOGIZE TO BP, FOR SOAKING UP ALL YOUR VALUABLE OIL WITH OUR WORTHLESS PELICANS."

Rep. Barton, in case you were wondering, this is why no one likes you, except for the oil companies who are too busy dumping tar balls outside my house.

2010-05-28T10:43:00.002-05:00

Congressman Charlie Melancon Overcome While Describing the Damage Caused by the Gulf Spill

Rep. Melancon (D-LA) was overcome by emotion describing the devastation the spill has caused his district - costing fishermen and shrimpers their livelihood, the lives of 11 men working the Deepwater Horizon when it blew, and precious and irreplaceable natural habitats.

The worst part is - no one knows how much hidden devastation Lousiana and Florida now face. Hidden devastation from lost income as tourists stay away and those who make their living fishing and shrimping wait for the the greenlight to return. Hidden devastation from the unknown effects of the vast plumes of oil under the surface of the water. Hidden devastation from the unknown effects of the dispersants used on the plumes (though not completely unknown - many men and women who were exposed to the dispersants are already sickened from the exposure). And hidden devastation from future generations being bequeathed a Gulf of Mexico who eco-system may have been irreparably damaged by the greedy demand to "Drill, baby, drill" - future generations who may never see the pristine Gulf, teeming with life, that I grew up next to.

Charlie Melancon is right on the money - this is something worth crying over.

2010-05-17T11:26:00.002-05:00

Rubio Switches Places with Crist, Becomes the "Establishment" Candidate in a Cycle That Favors the Insurgent

We can never get enough Charlie. That seems to be the pattern. Every time it has seemed prudent to write him off, he comes back, ruling his roost “above the fold” (a newspaper term referring to stories placed on the top half of paper, which represent what the editors think are the biggest stories of the day).

So it is that the biggest political question in Florida today is not longer “will Charlie have staying power” but “why does Charlie have staying power?”

It was common wisdom that the best day of Crist’s fledgling career as an NPA (no party affiliation) candidate would be his first day, but that it would be all downhill from there. He would generate press and buzz for the length of a news cycle and then sink into obscurity as the old order of Republicans and Democrats reasserted itself, leaving Meek and Rubio to duke it out while Crist fed off scraps and acted as little more than spoiler rather than a true contender in the general election match-up.

But it isn’t quite working out that way.

It’s still early to say that independent Charlie will continue to be a viable candidate through November, but if the prognosticators had been right, we should already be seeing the shine come off Crist as his poll numbers drop into the 20s. Instead, Charlie appears to be either maintaining his first place position in the polls or even strengthening it.

Even more amazing, it seems that Charlie will continue to be able to raise money to stay competitive. Now don’t get me wrong – I’m not saying that his fundraising hasn’t been severely curtailed or that he won’t find himself on the low end of things for a competitive Senate race in a big state like Florida. What I am saying is that rumors of Crist’s financial death have been greatly exaggerated.

But the real question of the day still has not been answered: how the heck is this happening?

The national mood has been accurately described as trending in favor of Republicans. However, the prevailing mood is not actually pro-Republican and anti-Democrat, but anti-establishment.

The GOP primary between Marco Rubio and Charlie Crist was billed (by Rubio’s supporters) as a matchup between a true conservative (Rubio) and a moderate (Crist). This was always a useful fiction, but had little to with reality.

In fiscal terms, Crist was the one using his line item veto to eliminate some (though hardly all) of the bloated pork barrel spending in the budgets Rubio (as Speaker) was shepherding through the legislature. And Crist never even had an RPOF Amex card with which to run up dubious charges (though Rubio was far from the worst offender, in this respect).

On social issues, Crist fell well within the Republican mainstream (he was, of course, once known as “Chain Gang Charlie” for his severe law-and-order-ism).

The only real point of contention was the stimulus, which Crist happily took (as did every Republican in the legislature). Rubio, of course, admits that he would have spent it, too.

The only difference, as regards the stimulus, is one of style or attitude.

Rubio would have taken the stimulus, but would have done so ironically or at least ungraciously.

To quote Clinton, he would have accepted the stimulus, but he would not have “inhaled.”

In other words, hardly a sign of a deep, ideological difference.

So, to get to my main point, Rubio was cleaning Crist’s clock because, even when he was twenty-five points up in the primary, he was still an insurgent candidate relative to Crist, whose long tenure as a statewide figure and current position as governor made him the “establishment.”

But when Crist left the GOP, that all changed.

Crist is now the anti-establishment, insurgent candidate – in other words, Crist is now the one in tune with Florida’s mood.

And Rubio now finds himself in a strange position – Crist’s switch was a bit of political jujitsu that went well beyond just taking him out a primary he was sure to lose. He also put Rubio into a new and uncomfortable position.

Rubio is now the candidate of the establishment. Rubio now represents that usual suspect and traditional power player, while Crist is the candidate of upsetting the system and changing business as usual.

Much has been made of the fact that Crist now seems much more comfortable. Going independent has relaxed him and given him back his mojo. But not enough has been made of what’s going on over at Camp Rubio.

Rubio is starting to look like he’s flailing slightly. His message control is getting
soft. He’s not sure where to go. Does he keep going to tea party events? Does he move to the center? Tack right? Tack left?

As an insurgent, his path was clear. Now, his path to victory is muddled and it’s showing.

Rubio is certainly not a Republican version of Howard Dean, but I think that a limited comparison has merits. Dean was an excellent insurgent candidate for president. He knew how to run from behind. But once he took the lead, his campaign started to fall apart. He was a terrible front-runner, because he didn’t know how to combine front-runner status with outside “cred.” Rubio is learning what that feels like.

2010-04-02T12:08:00.002-05:00

The Other Side of the Michael Steele Issue

In the interest of fairness, let me note that The Atlantic disagrees with my assessment of Steele's chances.

However, I would suggest that Steele will not be removed before the election (in a maneuver requiring a 2/3 vote), but in 2011, when Steele will be required to stand for re-election.

2010-04-01T11:53:00.003-05:00

Florida GOP Legislators Flip Flop on Stimulus (Sort Of)

In a nice bit of irony, the budget the GOP has crafted for the Sunshine State depends on... (wait for it!)... MONEY FROM THE OBAMA STIMULUS!

Yes, after listening to our GOP legislators decry the stimulus as the first step on the way to totalitarianism, they have now, apparently, given up and flip flopped and will now make Florida a Cuban-style client-state, completely dependent on the flow of Marxist dollars from those communists up in Washington.

I jest, of course, but I still find the irony amusing. And I expect that we won't hear Senate President Jeff Atwater complaining very loudly about the stimulus and the GOP leadership will almost certainly be doing some discreet lobbying for additional federal stimulus spending. Let's face it - with our tanking economy (an unemployment rate that's nearly one third higher than the national average - thanks for nothing, Tallahassee!) and our ridiculously out of balance tax base - federal dollars are the spit and duct tape that is holding Florida together.

2010-03-30T15:53:00.002-05:00

Michael Steele in Trouble

RNC Chairman Michael Steele has a lot riding on the mid-term elections coming up this November. In fact, his political career may rest on achieving near impossible goals. The GOP looks poised to do well and make significant gains in the 37 governors' seats that will be up this November, but more and more, I suspect that only taking back either the House or the Senate will be enough to change his fortunes and neither seems very likely to me (I am among those that believe that the GOP will make net gains of between 15-20 seats in the House and 3-4 in the Senate).

How did it reach this point?

In short, Steele's reign has been a complete disaster. His fundraising has been lackluster (when Steele came on-board, the RNC had $22 million cash on hand, but now has only $9.4 million - meaning that his burn rate is higher than his rate of receipts). He tends to go "off the reservation," message-wise, on a regular basis.

And now, of course, in quick succession, the press was leaked a memo that described RNC donors in terms both offensive and condescending and now donors have learned that, on at least one occasion, their donations were used by staff to pay for "meals" at a West Hollywood club that specializes in performances of simulated lesbian sex.

Michael Steele is up for re-election as chair of the RNC in 2011. Right now, he is saying that will stand for re-election. Anecdotally, Steele is said to remain popular among the rank and file grassroots, but with the establishment donor base already souring on Steele and with the Tea Party-wing taking an ever larger role at the grassroots level, it does not seem likely that anything less than seismic victories at the federal level will be inadequate to keep folks happy.

If Republicans defy the odds and win 40 seats in the House currently held by Democrats, then all will be forgiven. If the GOP does what everyone expects and picks up significantly less, you can expect Steele to claim that flipping the open Wyoming governor's seat from D to R shows that the RNC's efforts have been a success under his tenure. You can also expect the actual voting members of the Republican National Committee to disagree.

(picture courtesy of Keeping It Real with Michael Steele)

2010-03-25T10:45:00.004-05:00

How to Find a Job in (Mostly Democratic) Politics

I've been getting a lot of emails lately from folks asking me how to find a first job in politics, so I figured I'd share what I know. I run in Democratic circles, so I am simply not up to date on how the Republican party tends to disseminate the resumes of job seekers, so this will mostly be for fellow Democrats.

Firstly, there are three different world that do not coincide as much as you might think - electoral campaigns (including candidate campaigns, ballot initiatives, and federal, state and local party committees), non-profits (including think t anks and unions), and "the Hill" (working for a member of Congress or some part of a presidential administration, including cabinet departments).

Like many folks in politics, I personally, have worked in all three worlds, but generally, you pick a "track," so to speak and you do not cross over to other tracks for very long. When you do cross over, you will likely find yourself a further back in the pecking order than if you had stayed in your primary track.

Folks who work on the Hill think they are the real power, non-profit folks tend to be the most idealistic, and campaigners wonder why either group ever thinks they can accomplish anything without the correct people in elected office.

You will see a lot of Hill staffers dispersing in September and November to various campaigns. When they get back, they tell horror stories about how hard it was and how it was and how many hours they worked and how they'll never do it again. I used to just roll my eyes at this. On my first campaign, we got flooded with with Hill staffers and, I admit, I developed a real resentment. I found most of them very interested in feeling important and delegating, and not so interested in doing the "scut" work that actually needed to be done, but I have since had to revise upwards my overall opinion of Hill staffers. That said, having been a legislative assistant (which is the title of the average policy staffer) does not at all qualify you to hold a senior position - which goes both ways, because, as a campaigner, you will not really be suited to be a legislative assistant or "LA" unless you have some other skills.to

But enough digressions. Let's talk jobs.

So you want to work on the Hill? Ok. Your first job is likely to be an internship. An unpaid internship. Your one bit of good fortune - Washington, DC's unemployment rate is pretty low, so you can probably find a job waiting tables at night to, you know, pay for food and shelter. If you are very lucky (by which I mean, have some truly awesome connections), you might get as an office assistant or staff assistant. These jobs pays in the low twenties (I know, I know - it's not a highly paid profession, at least not in the early stages). Competition for jobs is fierce - DC is a mecca for young people looking for jobs with non-profits and the Hill. To make matters worse, if you want a job on the Hill, you generally have to be in DC. The average office will not even call you back if your resume says that you live in Minnesota. Yes, I know, it's even worse than you thought. You have to move to an expensive city and essentially do it on "spec."

Want to work on a campaign? Your first job is likely to be "field organizer," "canvasser," "finance assistant," or (more rarely) "communications assistant." The first two are field positions. The first position will have slightly more responsibility for doing community outreach, the second is basically door knocking/phone calling. Finance assistant will be working with the finance team to create call time sheets, doing paperwork, picking up larger checks, helping organize fundraisers, etc. Communications assistant will provide logistical help to the communications director, but not many campaigns have more than a communications director and maybe a press secretary, but a race of at least $500,000 will often have finance assistants. Also, communication staff, even the most junior ones, usually already have some experience. Junior finance staff will often just be someone hard working and organized. On a smaller race ($100,000 or less), especially if you know the candidate or are a regular volunteer on local races, you may get hired as a campaign manager right away.

Ok - so let's get to the meat of the matter. Where should you look? I've got a list of websites and listservs below.

jobsthatareleft-subscribe@yahoogroups.com (listserv)
tommanatosjobslist@yahoogroups.com (listserv)
www.Democraticgain.org (the primary website for looking for dem jobs)
www.idealist.org (non-profit jobs)
www.unionjobs.com/abclist.html (unions)
www.rcjobs.com (policy and non-profit jobs)
www.senate.gov/employment/po/positions.htm (the U.S. Senate job bulletin)
corporate.cq.com/wmspage.cfm?parm1=57 (U.S. House job bulletin)
www.bradtraverse.com/ (small monthly fee, but a very good list of DC-based jobs)
www.dccc.org/pages/jobs (jobs at the DCCC)
changeyourcongress.org/talent_bank.php (DCCC's talent bank)
www.dscc.org/about?type=job_bank (DSCC job bank and job listings)
www.progressflorida.org/jobbank (non-profit jobs in Florida)
www.stratcongroup.com (field consultants)
www.fieldworks.com/ (field consultants)
www.grassrootssolutions.com/ (field consultants)
wwww.burnsideandassociates.com/ (field consultants, primarily West Coast)

Knock yourselves out, but feel free to contact me via email or via the comments section for additional information or advice.

2010-03-24T17:22:00.002-05:00

Two Floridians on Sarah Palin's 'Target List'

Sara Palin has unveiled her list of the top 20 congressional Democrats targeted for defeat in 2010.

Two Floridians are on that list - Allen Boyd in the Panhandle and Suzanne Kosmas in central Florida.

Boyd is a conservative Democrat, but he did vote for the healthcare bill. That said, he is pretty safe unless the GOP can come up with a top tier challenger and for now, his biggest challenge is coming from the left - State Senator and one of the deans of Florida politics, Al Lawson, is challenging him in the Democratic primary.

Kosmas is perhaps a little more vulnerable now that is she isn't facing the ethically challenged Congressman Feeney (who she defeated in 2008 to take the 24th District), but, once again, money is a factor. She is a strong fundraiser (though not an overwhelmingly strong one), but none of the R's lining up to take her on have really shown the kind of financial muscle necessary to unseat her, especially since Florida has a late primary, meaning a long an expensive primary season that Kosmas can use to make her position ever more secure, while the twelve Republicans currently running against her beat each other up (though right now it seems like the winner will be either Craig Miller or Sandy Adama).

Oh - and notice how Grayson is NOT on that list. Folks up in DC do not seem to realize that Grayson is simply not vulnerable right now. Yes, he's polarizing, but the people who love him, really love him, and his populism is, well, popular, even among many Republicans. Finally, he is a rock star fundraiser running against a field of less than stellar fundraisers. Palin's team, at least, seems to realize this and have decided to take a pass on challenging Grayson for now.

2010-03-22T16:30:00.002-05:00

Last Night Was Romney's Waterloo

The biggest loser of last night's healthcare vote in the House was not, in fact, House Minority Leader John Boehner. If there was one clear closer, it was Mitt Romney.

It has long been noted that the healthcare reform passed by the House last night is very much like the healthcare reform signed into law by then Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.

Romney's strategy for becoming the 2012 GOP nominee revolves around two main ideas. The first, is positing himself as, for lack of a better word, "next in line." Republican GOP primaries tend not to nominate surprise candidates, a la Obama, but rather someone who is "due" their turn. Often (though not always), this person has run before and lost in the primary to the eventual nominee. This list includes McCain, Reagan (remember - Reagan ran against Gerald Ford in 1976), Dole, and Bush 41 (Bush 43 was more of a legacy candidate, but still fits into the overall theme of the importance of hierarchy in the process).

But he needs another leg to stand on - and that will be the economy. Romney has long sold his work for private equity funds as being just the sort of economic acumen this country needs.

So what's happening with that? As to the first part of the strategy, the appearance of Obama has sparked a desire for a more inspirational candidate than usual, and Romney is many things, but inspiring is not one of them.

As regards the economy, by 2012, all signs indicate that employment levels will be noticeably recovering (the economy as a whole is already recovering, but employment is a lagging indicator).

So, the legs that support Romney's candidacy are already wobbling a little. With that being true, the last thing he needs is something new for his opponents (Palin, Huckabee, Thune, Santorum, Pence, Pawlenty, etc.) to beat him over the head with - but last night's healthcare reform is exactly that.

Whether you agree with the reform or not, I think we can all agree that a significant percentage of the voters who will make up the participants in GOP primaries will see it as a bad thing - and every one of them will see television ads and receive direct mail explaining how "Obamacare" is actually just "Romney-care."

To drag the metaphor out further, without another leg to stand, Romney's almost certain to fall under that kind of bludgeoning.

2010-03-22T12:19:00.002-05:00

Bush Speechwriter Thinks Healthcare Reform Is Here to Stay

Despite the claims of folks like McCollum that healthcare reform will be repealed, former George W. Bush speechwriter is less sanguine:

“No illusions please: This bill will not be repealed. Even if Republicans scored a 1994 style landslide in November, how many votes could we muster to re-open the ‘doughnut hole’ and charge seniors more for prescription drugs? How many votes to re-allow insurers to rescind policies when they discover a pre-existing condition? How many votes to banish 25 year-olds from their parents' insurance coverage?

2010-03-19T13:09:00.001-05:00

Regarding My Last Post...

It seems that the St. Pete Times agrees.

2010-03-18T20:04:00.004-05:00

Effects of Healthcare Reform on the Tampa Bay Area

The House Commerce Committee has posted some reports on the impact of healthcare reform on various congressional district, including our own 9th (Bilirakis), 10th (Young), and 11th (Castor).

In my own home district (the 10th), the reform would help an estimated 13,600 residents with pre-existing conditions keep or get healthcare. This is a big deal, because the fine folks in Tallahassee have been allowing insurance companies to flatly deny coverage to people with pre-existing conditions trying to buy insurance in the individual market (though letting the insurance industry get away with whatever they want can't be surprise to those who read about this) - which means that 13,600 people in the district are, among other things, discouraged from starting a small business, because they can't buy coverage, but must take a position at a larger company that provides healthcare benefits through a group plan. The only other options are to go without health insurace or to go on Medicaid.

2010-03-17T14:50:00.002-05:00

Healthcare Polling - Swing and "Blue Dog" Districts

A little caveat here: John Anzalone has been a friend of the family for fifteen years or so (predating, even, the start of my political career) and he has done polling for one of my past campaigns.

March 15, 2010
To: Interested Parties
Fr: John Anzalone / Matt Hogan
Re: Summary of Findings from Swing District Health Insurance Reform Poll

Anzalone Liszt Research recently conducted a poll of 2010 likely voters across 92 Frontline, Blue Dog, and Rural districts on behalf of AFSCME, CWA and NEA. The key findings from the poll included the following:

· Strong majorities of these voters want reform and want it this year. There is still strong support for reforming the healthcare system, as 59% of voters in these districts - which are slightly more conservative than the electorate overall - favor major reform or a total overhaul of the current system. They also want reform now, as over 60% believe that it is important to pass health insurance reform this year, including 64% of swing voters (those who do not side with either party in the generic ballot and who make up 28% of voters in these districts) and 93% of Democrats.

· Once voters learn about the plan, a majority supports it. As we've seen in earlier polling and focus groups, voters are largely unaware of any benefits of reform beyond expanding coverage for the uninsured. The vast majority of voters who already have coverage therefore don't see how reform will help them. After hearing about some of the benefits of the plan however, support for it among voters overall increases from 42% to 51%. Swing voters were particularly receptive to information about the plan, with their level of support rising from 35% to 50% after learning more about it.

· Ensuring coverage for pre-existing conditions and requiring members of Congress to have the same plan as tens of millions of Americans are the most compelling components of reform. These two components were seen as the best reasons to support health insurance reform, both when tested on their own and as messages. They are the most popular components of reform among voters overall, and also among key audiences, including seniors. Although these were the most popular components of the plan, fourteen others were also tested, and each was supported by at least 60% of both swing voters and voters overall.

· A majority of swing voters still say they need more information about the plan before taking a firm position on it. Despite all the debate over health insurance reform over the past year, 40% of likely voters in these districts - and 55% of swing voters - say that they need more information on the President's reform plan before they can take a firm position on it. Meanwhile, those voters who have made up their mind on the plan lean Republican by a 20-point margin.

· Swing voters are just as concerned about continued insurance company abuses as they are about any potentially negative consequence of reform. Over two-thirds of swing voters (67%) were very concerned that premiums would continue to rise in the absence of reform, and 62% were similarly worried about insurance companies continuing to deny coverage based on pre-existing conditions. These concerns were equal to or even greater than the level of fear over reform's impact on the deficit, taxes or government involvement in healthcare.

Anzalone Liszt Research conducted 1,003 live telephone interviews with likely 2010 voters in 92 Blue Dog/Frontline/Rural Caucus House Districts between February 26 and March 4, 2010. Respondents were selected at random, with interviews apportioned geographically based on past voter turnout. Expected margin of error for these results is ±3.1% with a 95% confidence level.

2010-03-15T19:06:00.000-05:00

GOP Primary Poll - March 9th

InsiderAdvantage / Florida Times-Union
3/9/10; 512 likely Republican primary voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone

2010 Senate: Republican Primary
60% Rubio, 26% Crist

2010-03-09T23:12:00.002-05:00

This ad ran on Glenn Beck's show...

Wow. People are now using Glenn Beck to microtarget those demographics who A) believe that America will turn into The Road Warrior by next Christmas or B) own a compound that will shortly be surrounded by ATF agents.

2010-03-09T12:25:00.002-05:00

Very Expensive, Emergency Damage Control Time at the RNC

Remember when the RNC divided their donors into people driven by fear and people driven by ego and a desire for "tchochkes?" Yeah - me, too. That was hilarious.

Anyway, the RNC has now been forced to do even more damage control over that little debacle. They have, in fact, been forced to run ads on television - dropping almost a million dollars on an ad buy.

What is the purpose of these ads? To win over undecided voters who may be souring on the President? Conservative Democrats who can be convinced to join the Republican revolution in November? Or are they supporting vulnerable Republicans, to make sure they don't give up any electoral ground in the fall?

If you guess any of these, you guessed wrong! These ads are aimed at - REPUBLICAN DONORS. They messed up so badly that they feel that they have to run television ads to reassure that they don't really think they are frightened, ego-manical, obsessive keychain collectors and that they really do love and respect their donors.

They are running these ads in Palm Beach, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, and Cincinnati.

Super awesome job, Michael Steele.

2010-03-08T17:47:00.003-05:00

John Cornyn Wants Someone Younger and Prettier for the Florida Senate, But Won't Leave Crist for the Sake of the Children or Because He's Catholic or Something Like That

Do you remember the big fuss back when NRSC Chair and Texas Senator John Cornyn endorsed Charlie Crist for the U.S. Senate? You probably don't, because that was back in the bad old days when Crist was not absolutely dead man walking in the GOP primary and before everbody who wanted to show the conservative cred lined up to endorse Rubio.

Anyway...

Here's what Cornyn had to say about that now awkward endorsement:

"I think I'm honor-bound to leave it as it is. It doesn't mean we're going to be spending any money in the primary or saying anything bad about Marco Rubio."

I'm trying to come up with a metaphor that sums this up - "You used to be skinny and hot, but now you're fat and ugly now and I would rather be having sex with almost anyone else on the planet, but I will stay with you for the sake of the kids, however, as soon as the kids go off to college, (i.e., the Republican primary is over) I am totally leaving you for someone half your age."

2010-03-05T13:29:00.002-05:00

RPOF Red Flag?

The Republican Party of Florida has announced that they will be running a significant (six figure) television buy against Alex Sink. Instead of producing their own ad, the RPOF is simply re-running the ad produced by the Republican Governors Association (which also did a six figure buy).

What does this suggest?

The mere fact that the RGA was running ads in February says that they thought McCollum (or Dockery, though McCollum has to be favored) would ultimately struggle against Sink. This follows the common wisdom, which says that McCollum (who has so far failed to keep up with Sink on the fundraising front – Sink even boasts a $500 contribution from the new chair of the RPOF!) is lackluster candidate with a history of not quite making it on the biggest stage, whereas Sink is more of a rising star. Despite polling which shows McCollum in the lead, no one really seems to believe that he’ll come good on his own in the end.

If the RPOF is running those same ads again, that suggests they think that those dynamics which seem to favor Sink have not been altered.
It also says the RPOF’s money woes have not abated, despite the appointment of uber-insider John Thrasher as the Chair of the state party.
“How can he say that?” you ask. “They just dropped a lot of money into ads against Sink and it’s only March!”

Let me explain my reasoning – it is typical to run different series of television ads, with the same message, with the same branding, but with more or less subtly different images and words, over the course of an election season. Campaigns do this for the same reason that your local affiliates don’t just run the funniest Seinfeld episode (in my opinion, the one where George does the opposite of all his instincts) every night at 8 pm. Yes, there repeated viewings of the ad are important for getting through to the average voter, but there is such a thing as overkill. It’s why large campaigns will often run multiple ads simultaneously.

For the RPOF to simply take over the RGA’s buy – that says they looked at their coffers and said: A) We have to do something to keep Sink from winning this but B) we can’t afford to run a negative ad AND produce it. Solution – we’ll cut corners and just run someone else’s television ad.

Another possibility is that recent and much publicized shake-ups at the RPOF have left the decision making team so traumatized that they don’t feel capable of putting together a process to get a new ad approved.

Either way, something funky is going on in Tallahassee (which is hardly surprising, I know).

2010-03-04T21:32:00.002-05:00

Even Better Than Wonkette

Even better than the Wonkette's take on things is this piece by Kevin Huffman in the Washington Post.

Frameworks bring clarity to the fundraising process, and your plan has a simple, clear message: We have fun peddling fear to Luddites...

And...

...your plan divides Republican donors into two main categories: small donors who are "visceral," "reactionary" and motivated by "fear," and large donors who are "calculated," "ego-driven" and motivated by "access."

Classic stuff.

And no end of fun. And a warning not to put to put language insulting your donors on paper. In the end, everything gets leaked.

2010-03-04T10:04:00.003-05:00

RNC Hilarity Or Another Reason Why Michael Steele Was A Bad Choice

If you haven't seen the whole thing, you must check this out. I have included the most hilarious of the power point slides - a wonderful combination of condescending arrogance, sad estimation of human nature, and the all around deep lack of respect for Republican donors that Republican fundraisers have for the very people who pay their nice salaries.

As you might expect, Wonkette has the most succinct summation of the whole thing, but if you must have more detail, check out the right-leaning, insider baseball magazine Politico's fuller take on it here.

2010-03-02T16:44:00.002-05:00

What To Do, What To Do?

Today's musings are in response to Peter Schorsch's recent "To Do List" for Florida Democrats.

I will say that Peter is mostly spot on in his observations, so let me offer some ideas for the Pinellas and Hillsborough DECs as they move forward.

The most important thing to remember is to not just focus on the big, "sexy" races. A state house race, for example, may not be as exciting to some folks as a congressional race, but they are often more winnable.

Pinellas was ground zero for Democrats in 2006, flipping a number of legislative seats from R to D. In 2010, those opportunities are strongest in Hillsborough with HD 60, where Russ Patterson, by all reports is running an aggressive field effort, and HD 57, where Faye Culp is termed out. It's also not too early for Hillsborough Dems to ask themselves who will be their strongest standard bearer next year, when the Tampa mayor's race opens up. Republicans are likely to rally behind Rose Ferlita, but it's not clear to me that Dems have a clear frontrunner.

In Pinellas, Bob Hackworth does a path to victory for the County Commission against (maybe) Susan Latvala. I say maybe because we all saw the numbers, wherein Latvala looked less than impressive against Beverly Biliris. In a Republican primary likely to be dominated by Rubio supporters and Tea Partiers, Latvala's road to the GOP nomination looks a little rocky. Hackworth has name recognition from his congressional race two years ago and though his self-imposed campaign finance limits of $100 per donor and no corporate monies will almost certainly mean that he will be outspent, he is a tireless door knocker and whoever comes out of the August 24th GOP primary will likely be a little bruised (and also probably be starting from zero in the money race - both Latvala and Biliris will almost certainly have to spend most or all of their warchest just to make sure of getting out of the primary).

In respect to Peter's exact points, he is absolute right about the primacy of the governor's race and the attorney general's race. I have already said that I think that either Aronbeg or Gelber will be strong in a general election matchup. Sink's campaign sometimes seems to be having some difficulty really taking off, so to speak, but she remains in the lead in the money race. In addition, is Paula Dockery puts some of her own money into her campaign, the GOP primary has the potential to become a little tricky (I must admit, Dockery is a little bit of mystery to me, but it is clear that she has some very devoted fans, whereas McCollum is at best liked, rather than loved, and has the ability to self-finance; she could become the next Rubio or just the next Joe Negron [the 2006 GOP primary for AG - look it up]).

I will say that Meek apparently portrayed himself as pretty confident of getting enough petitions to qualify when he spoke at the Pinellas Kennedy-King Dinner. He could have been bluffing, he could have been fooling himself, or he could know something we don't know. Or my spy could have totally misread the mood of the speech. Nonetheless, I will remain cautiously more sanguine than Peter about the Congressman's chances of qualifying by petition.

Finally, I have long believed that Fair District will go a long way towards the goal of good government for Florida (something we have not had for some time), whatever your political affiliation.

2010-03-02T11:21:00.002-05:00

It's Not Really About Rubio

Salon has a nice piece on the Crist/Rubio match-up. Probably the most interesting point it makes is that the major, perceived dynamic of the race is a false image - the moderate Crist vs the conservative icon Rubio.

In terms of actual actions in their elected positions - Crist as governor and Rubio as speaker - can anyone name a significant number of actions that taken in their respective offices that makes Rubio more conservative than Crist?

You can't. Not really.

Rubio is not the conservative in the race. For an angry, anti-incumbent electorate, it is enough that Rubio is not Crist. That is why when the Crist camp points out that Rubio is absolutely part of the "establishment" as a lobbyist and as a former speaker of the house, it doesn't get any traction. If this were ever about Rubio, he would still be twenty points behind. Instead, it's all about Crist, so Rubio's lead is eighteen points and only getting stronger.

We saw a similar dynamic in Massachusetts, where a moderate, pro-choice Scott Brown became the darling of a conservative, pro-lifers across the country.

2010-02-28T22:08:00.002-05:00

Aronberg v Gelber Redux

I recently noted the relative fundraising of Aronberg and Gelber - well, they apparently got into it at the Pinellas DEC's Kennedy-King Dinner.

Aronberg (in the barnburning speech of the evening) said that he had $100,000 more cash on hand than any other candidate for Attorney General and had likewise raised more money than any other candidate.

Gelber took a little umbrage at that and said that he was the best fundraiser.

As I mentioned last week, they are both right - Aronberg does have more cash on hand and did outraise Gelber in the last quarter, but Gelber has raised more overall.

Why does this matter? Because this is the marquee match up on the Democratic side of the aisle come August 24th. It doesn't have the vitriol or faint oedipal tinge of Crist v Rubio, but it is still a critical decision by the electorate.

Especially because the GOP side of the aisle is seen to be relatively weak. Pam Bondi could become a strong candidate, but she is late to the game and behind the eight ball in the money race. Jeff Kottkamp is generally considered to be a weak candidate and damaged goods for spending significant sums of taxpayer money to travel around the state (as Lieutenant Governor, he has zero responsibilities and authority, so excessive travel looks like politicking on the public dime - and it didn't even help him much - most Floridians still don't realize that Toni Jennings isn't still the Lieutenant Governor).

What I'm saying is, the winner of Aronberg v Gelber will be a strong favorite in November.

2010-02-26T20:16:00.002-05:00

He Loves the GOP... He Loves the GOP Not... He Love the GOP... He loves the GOP Not...

Will he or won't he?

The DailyKos has been blogging about this for some time.

For myself... I just don't know. It's clear to me that Crist cannot win the Republican primary, but who knows what Crist and his team are seeing when they look at things.

2010-02-25T17:13:00.003-05:00

Lawyer to Lawyer Letter from Sandy D'Alemberte

Sandy D'Alemberte, a former president of the American Bar Association, is supporting Senator Dan Gelber in the Democratic primary for Attorney General (full disclosure - I am personally friendly with Senator Dave Aronberg, Gelber's opponent in the primary). She sent out an email to Florida lawyers, asking them to support Gelber. The letter touts (among other things) that "though I"m not a big believer in polls and fundraising, Dan has raised more than other candidate in the race, and has been ahead in each poll reported."

I suspect that those polls actually have "undecided" winning and both Aronberg and Gelber running fairly close. I know that Gelber was only marginally ahead in the money race in the last filing - $669,906.50 to $655,750.10 - and that Aronberg actually outraised by my $50k in the last quarter and has a $100,000 cash on hand advantage over Gelber.

But, lest I come across as a shill for Aronberg, let me say that having D'Alemberte actively fundraise for him is a good get by Gelber. I'm not sure what the email universe looked like (I got it from a Republican attorney who has been a family friend for almost 25 years), but this could go a long way towards to giving Gelber a real advantage.

P.S. - Check the new website of the Hillsborough County Budget to follow the budget process.

2010-02-24T11:44:00.002-05:00

The Voters Are Just Not That Into You Anymore

It appears that Crist is taking my advice and will be dropping a chunk of change on some comparison ads against Rubio. I'm sure we've all seen the latest Rasmussen poll that has Crist down 18 points to Rubio and sitting at under 36%, so I don't need to tell you about it.

Well, I kind of think this means game over in the Republican primary for Crist.

That's right - I don't see a way back for Crist. Rubio will continue to see his fundraising improve and the best Crist can hope for is a slow stagnation in his finances (we already saw signs of this in their last FEC reports), so Crist will have no chance to overwhelm Rubio with paid media in the summer. Yes, I think Crist is back on his game, but it's too late.

The comparison I would make is to Jon Corzine in New Jersey. Corzine lost not because voters didn't like him or objected to his position or action on a particular issue. No - voters had just reached a point in their lives where they were "over" that particular politician. There was really nothing Corzine could do to make them want to vote for him. It's the same with Crist in the GOP primary. If you look at the numbers, no one dislikes Crist. No one thinks he will do a bad job. They are just "over" him. And I don't think there is anything left he can do to make them fall in love with him again.

P.S. - The RGA is so worried about McCollum's lackluster campaign skills that they are dropping a six figure, broadcast in Florida now. This speaks volumes about their lack of confidence in him.

2010-02-22T22:45:00.001-05:00

53 Fixes for House District 53

Got an idea for fixing Florida? Send it to Rep. Rick Kriseman here!

2010-02-21T22:15:00.002-05:00

I Love Wonkette

Have I recommended Wonkette lately? If you follow politics, this blog is the equivalent to Perez Hilton or Gawker (it is actually in the Gawker family of websites).

Anyway, they provided what is probably the most trenchant remarks about the straw poll at CPAC (and if you don't know what CPAC is or its importance in the political universe and if you have any pretensions to being a political junkie you need to leave my blog and educate yourself, because it is a major event).

Romney finished with 22%, proving once again that he can’t even get a fourth of the room to like him, even when that room is exclusively filled with Republicans.

2010-02-20T22:59:00.002-05:00

Steve Schale on Redistricting

Steve Schale is definitely my new favorite Florida political blogger/analyst and he's talking about one of my favorite topics - the coming redistricting and the host of factors that will play into it - demographic changes, the possible end of blatantly partisan redistricting if Fair Districts passes, a possible change in partisan control of the governor's mansion, and rising voter unrest that could see a surprising number of seats change parties.

Anyway - check out his latest blog posting on the subject.

2010-02-11T15:26:00.002-05:00

Young Definitely Running

I know that I said I was done with prognosticating on whether or not Congressman Bill Young will retire, but...

This time is different - because I'm saying Young will definitely run for re-election.

Not really news, I know.

But, just to explain my reasoning - PREC is holding their Lincoln Day Dinner (usually, the biggest fundraising event of the year for local Republican party organizations) on February 20th and Young is expected to announce his re-election plans on that occasion.

I just don't think he's going to use this event as a forum to say "I'm retiring." Retirements are usually done more discreetly.

2010-02-10T16:10:00.002-05:00

What I Think Happens Next

It's been fun, commenting on the collapse of the once unstoppable juggernaut that was Crist for Senate, but now it's time to put my prognostication abilities on the line.

In other words, what would I do, if I were on Crist's team?

First, I would drop a poll in the field to see where, exactly, we are and where Republican primary voters see Crist as stronger than Rubio.

Once that's in, I would drop $1 million on statewide television, plus a heavy campaign schedule to complement the advertising.

After things have been allowed to percolate, it's time for a tracking poll. Not just who will you vote for, but who do you trust most on this hypothetical issue that might be Crist's best wedge? If the dial hasn't moved, then maybe Crist needs to ask himself what his options are.

I'm not saying that this tracking poll needs to show him winning, but it needs to start showing some positive movement.

And what are Crist's options?

Run as an independent - giving up whatever field infrastructure he might have had and count on his cash on hand (because he will find it much harder to raise money as an independent).

Test the waters for a switch the Democratic party and see if Meek can be beaten in the primary.

Prepare for a race against Bill Nelson in 2012.

Run for re-election as governor and tell McCollum "My bad, but go s---w yourself, you'll never be governor and you'll always be second best." (Note: while that might sound fun on paper, keep in mind that Crist could not transfer any of his Senate monies to a state race and would be starting from near zero in the money race).

Call it a day and take Carol to the Green Iguana and regale us with stories of how he was almost picked to be McCain's running mate.

2010-02-04T17:30:00.002-05:00

The Florida House

I made my first stop at the Florida House, the Sunshine State's non-partisan embassy in Washington, DC, the other day. I'm up scoping for some work from one of the national committees (and am getting no love - the campaign manager will be on half rations until he can put something together) and stopped by this beautiful property just behind the Supreme Court.

Part of my reason for stopping by was to score some free orange juice, but mostly I wanted to see their collection of paintings by the Florida Highwaymen.

I was told that a Canadian art collector loaned the paintings to the Florida House after learning how much the tariffs would be to bring them with him back to Canada.

Anyway - check out the Florida Highwaymen and the Florida House the next time any of y'all find yourself in our capitol.

2010-02-01T00:07:00.002-05:00

Can Justice Still Beat Young?

The recently posted FEC filings by Congressman Bill Young and Senator Charlie Justice don't paint a clear picture.

Neither candidate is doing proper fundraising.

Young "raised" only $750 - $250 from an electrical utility in Tallahassee and $500 from UPS (headquartered in Atlanta). He also got another $223.31 in interest from money in accounts in six different banks.

So why the air quotes around "raised?" Because Young clearly isn't raising money - that $750 just represents a couple of PACs on autopilot more or less randomly sending checks ("Hey - who was the Congressman in Florida who carried water for us that time? Let's send him a courtesy check.").

If Young were actually raising money, he would have just held a couple of cocktail parties at a lobbyist's house on Capitol Hill for 100 defense contractors and insurance lobbyists at $1000 a head and called it a quarter.

He's still dropping little hints that he will retire, but I've learned my lesson and will cease speculation.

He does have almost $400,000 cash on hand (COH) and could get someone to put those cocktail parties together in about a week, so if he decides to campaign.

Justice raised a viciously disappointing $48895.37 with less than a quarter million raised for the campaign and less than $100,000 COH.

Once again (he had the same problem last quarter), Justice's burn rate is inexcusable - this time he spent $10,000 more than he pulled in, eating into his reserves.

At this stage of the game, it is all about stockpiling the money for television down the road.

Justice has done a good job of raising smaller donations from the Tampa Bay area, an important way to build the grassroots and show strong, local support - but at some point (and that point was three months ago), his campaign needs to buckle and start raising serious cash. He only received donations from eight different unions and only a handful of other PACs - the institutional donors, in other words.

There probably needs to be some kind of shakeup.

Stopping paying $3500 a month for FEC compliance assistance - he's not raising enough money to need compliance help, besides which, he has NGP software, which should enable his finance director and treasurer to handle the compliance. If at any time, he starts raising $250,000+ a month, he can consider paying for help.

Any staff not directly raising needs to start making that his or her full time job. Maybe someone new needs to come on to get the finance operation in order and probably some kind of finance consultant.

Both candidates are well liked. The district favors Justice, but incumbentcy favors Young. Right now, neither candidate is approaching the fundraising with the seriousness. Young is the incumbent and can afford not to. He can drop $350,000 on cable in the district and another $50,000 to hit 25,000 households with twice with full color, glossy mail.

2010-01-27T16:38:00.002-05:00

Is There Still a Path to Victory for Crist?

You can never write off a sitting governor, but more and more, I'm just not seeing how Crist does it.

Right now, the main advantage Crist has is his cash on hand advantage. Even with Rubio coming close to matching Crist's most recent quarterly totals, there is almost no way that Rubio comes close to matching Crist, dollar for dollar.

And, as I've said before, money is crucial.

But what can Crist buy with his money? I'm not talking buying cable vs broadcast vs radio vs mail. I'm talking about what effect can he buy to change the dynamic.

He can't improve his name recognition - it's already effectively 100%.

Basically, all he can do is tear down Rubio. Former Governor Jon Corzine of New Jersey tried that last November (with a similar cash advantage) and it nearly worked - he went from dead in the water to a loss that, while not exactly close, was better than a blowout (about five points).

A massive negative campaign could bring down Rubio's positives, but what generally does, is turn the campaign into a battle of the "bases" - and, as Steve Schale has pointed out, Crist doesn't really have a base.

I'll admit to being slightly baffled as to how Rubio became this outside darling - as a former speaker, he is a true insider and was once one of the most powerful men in the state. As speaker, no, he didn't compare to, say, Johnnie Byrd, as speakers go, but he was still the most powerful legislator in the state within recent memory.

But far from me to question how the zeitgeist moves. And it's moving Marco almost inexorably towards an August 24th victory.

2010-01-26T16:51:00.003-05:00

Something Sharon Day Would Never Do

Though some have asked whether Sharon Day can raise the $40 million or so some folks have estimated the RPOF will need to avoid slipping down in Florida, the actual decision may come down to a smaller number - $500.

$500 is the maximum contribution a single entity can make to a candidate for state office in Florida.

Senator John Thrasher wrote a check for $500 to Alex Sink's campaign.

He can say that he didn't know that she would be running for governor, rather than re-election to CFO (though that sounds like B.S. to me - who honestly believed that Sink would not be running for f higher office in 2010? If Thrasher really believed that, then there is another mark against him - vast political naivete).

But Sharon Day would almost certainly never have done that. Known as the queen of the rubber chicken circuit, working to build up RECs across the state and raising money for the RPOF, county parties, and local candidates - I suspect that Sharon Day would rather eat broken glass than write a $500 to a Democratic candidate.

That sort of red blooded loyalty matters in these cases.

P.S. - Charlie, Thrasher follows your buddy Greer over to the "loser" column on Florida's political scoresheet... I'll buy you a drink over at the Green Iguana while we watch a Rubio and Meek debate each other on Bay News 9.

2010-01-26T13:19:00.002-05:00

Memo to Charlie Crist

Charlie - that stuff on the wall over there? That's the writing.

Let me show you what I mean... OUCH!

2010-01-15T19:07:00.003-05:00

Addendum to My Most Recent Post

The Fix has it's own list - the 20 Congressional seats most likely to flip parties. The only Florida seat on this list is Alan Grayson in Florida's 8th District.

The Fix's author, Chris Cilizza, is training to succeed David Broder as the nation's primary disseminator of bland, uncontroversial, conventional wisdom - but I'm not sure he has a good fix (pun intended) on the Sunshine State.

Now - maybe if Rich Crotty weren't jockeying to be Orange County's own little Ray Sansom and maybe if the GOP could coalesce around a strong second choice candidate who could raise the big bucks needed to oust the well funded the Grayson (who also had one of Florida's most extensive field campaigns - ask someone from his last election how many phone calls volunteers made in his victory; no, really - I was deeply impressed).

2010-01-15T00:53:00.002-05:00

Florida Featured in DCCC 'Target List'

The DCCC has listed 26 "Top Races" - 25 GOP held seats and on Dem held seat. Among those is one seat in Florida.

No, it's not in the Tampa Bay area - it's the 12th Congressional District being vacated by Adam Putnam in his race for Agriculture Commissioner.

Charlie Justice did a shout out as one of nine races in the next tier, called "Emerging Races," but it seems clear that he needs to step up his game in the next few months if he's going to challenge an incumbent Bill Young (all bet are off if Young retires).

2010-01-13T19:55:00.002-05:00

The New Map

The Bay Buzz got me thinking about the Congressional redistricting coming up.

The new seat will almost certainly along the I-4 corridor, but I question whether it will be at the St. Pete end of it.

No doubt the GOP legislature will try to keep it competitive, but with demographic changes, it will be hard for a new seat to be anything other than swing or Dem-leaning - otherwise, they'll risk losing seat somewhere else.

However, there are a couple of caveats.

Mainly, the first priority will be for them to protect existing GOP incumbents. But let's not assume that the list of incumbents won't change.

Right in Tampa Bay, Young is facing his stiffest challenge yet. If Justice wins, how will the legislature react? Will they make that seat more Democratic - making it safer for Justice and moving the lines around to create a new, GOP leaning seat near Tampa Bay? Will they decide that Young's "will he/won't he?" retirement guessing game can't go on forever and just prepare for life with a Democratic 10th and siphon Republican voters into other districts?

What about Kosmas and Grayson? Grayson looks to have gotten a pass, but Kosmas might have a tough race. If she loses, do they need to put more Republicans into that district to protect their new incumbent, thereby making other districts (including Grayson's) more safely Democratic?

If Fair Districts passes, all bets are off (and I hope it it does). If it doesn't, I suspect that legislature protects the state quo, adding a swing, but Dem leaning district with a significant Latino population in central Florida.

2010-01-12T19:04:00.001-05:00

The National Media Pile On

Even the Atlantic is jumping on poor Charlie Crist and our little old straw poll.

2010-01-07T21:30:00.002-05:00

Money Talks

It looks like Thrasher will be the next RPOF chair, after all. The grassroots will feel aggrieved, but the rumblings of the big donors matter more, in these cases, and they like Thrasher.

2010-01-06T11:02:00.003-05:00

Greer Out, Crist Screwed

I don't have any insight as to who will replace Greer (though Bense seems like a likely choice), but I will bet the house that whoever it is will absolutely not be a known ally of Crist - which means that Crist's tacit endorsement of Thrasher has probably torpedoed his chances.

In fact, Crist will consider himself lucky if the new chair is not and outright Rubio supporter (or at least a stalking horse for Jeb Bush, who clearly favors Rubio).

I wonder if people outside of Florida understand how bad it has really gotten for Crist these days? He's starting to look our version of Chris Dodd - a once popular and seemingly invulnerable pol who saw his chances drop like a rock without his home state appreciably changing (as opposed to someone who might have seen his state fundamentally change from red to blue or vice versa).

2010-01-06T10:29:00.000-05:00

Hilarious

This was just too much fun.

2010-01-02T14:15:00.002-05:00

Blogger Obits

As I look back over the last year, a couple of fellow travelers have fallen by the wayside.

Stpetersblog seems to have been serious about quitting, for which I am very sorry. They were our version of the Daily Show - funny, trenchant criticism of our little world here.

The Florida Blog is on indefinite hiatus (darn this economic instability!).

The State of Sunshine is also on indefinite hiatus.

The Political Whore has been "consolidated" and Mr. Garcia has moved on to teaching position.

Of all these, the first an last losses are the saddest for me - though I continue to hold out hope that Stpetersblog will return to skewer our new mayor and the city council.

2010-01-01T12:33:00.002-05:00

The Obituaries

The St. Petersburg Times had an article in yesterday's (12/31/2009) paper titled "Donors call for Greer's ouster." This was nothing particularly - though the agitating of donors, including Republican uber-donor and sometime king-maker Mel Sembler is big news.

No, what struck my eye was the placement of the article. It was in the obituary section. It was the only news article (as opposed to an obit) on the page. If one were being glib - and I am - one could say that the St. Pete Times had indeed printed Greer's obituary. The passing of his chairmanship is not likely to be mourned.

2009-12-30T14:13:00.003-05:00

St. Pete Political Football

Not exactly politics, but a recent bit of political football - I am speaking, of course, about the Baywalk sidewalk.

I want to give credit to my favoroite St. Pete Times columnist Howard Troxler. I was listening to him on WMNF today.

To paraphrase what he said - mayor-to-be Bill Foster and other local politicos have decided that the real problem with Baywalk is not 12.5% unemployment, (almost twenty percent higher than the nation, as a whole - heckuva job, you're doing there, Crist), a weird collection of less than popular shops, and the hordes of teenagers loitering around the premises. No - our great and wise leaders have decided that peace protests, occurring about once a week and lasting for about hour - that these people (numbering perhaps a dozen on a good night) are the real problem and not the Charlie Crist economy, the businesses themselves, nor roving bands of teenagers.

All in all, I would say this is classic St. Petersburg government.

2009-12-23T17:30:00.001-05:00

Steve Schale

I hope everyone is checking out Steve Schale's new blog.

2009-12-22T16:40:00.003-05:00

What's Up with the Diaz-Balart Thing?

Things got worse for Crist - both Diaz-Balart brothers withdrew their endorsement of the governor. Endorsements are almost always overrated, but these two guys were a good entry point for Crist to try and keep Rubio from locking up the Cuban vote. But what really hurt here is what the elder brother's statement that "[Crist] knows why."

This is going to open up all sorts of weird questions that only Lincoln Diaz-Balaart can answer, but clearly doesn't intend to give us the satisfaction - so Floridians are going to keep on wondering. Is it about money or sex or SunRail or the FCAT or Cuban policy or... you get the idea.

Zogby has Crist up by 9 points over Rubio. I haven't been a big fan of Zogby, but these numbers look more realistic to me than the Rasmussen numbers that had them tied. Rasmussen leans right to the point that I believe their numbers to be pretty badly flawed - though I do see wisdom in their trend lines. And all the polls show a pretty basic trend - Crist staying under 50 and Rubio climbing. All in all, 9 points sounds about right to me.

2009-12-17T00:48:00.002-05:00

The Irony

Poor Crist's numbers are dropping (though we must always take Rasmussen's reactionary-leaning polls with a grain of salt).

The irony of it is, had Crist run for re-election as governor, he would likely have faced only token opposition (Sink almost certainly would either have run for re-election as CFO or gone after the Senate seat herself).

It looks increasingly likely that the blowback from Crist's decision to forgo a second term as governor could include a loss in the Republican primary, the ouster of his good friend Jim Greer from the chairmanship of the Florida Republican Party, and a Democrat in the governor's mansion (giving the Democrats an equal seat at the bargaining table during redistricting - thereby threatening the GOP's gerrymandered control of the legislature by 2014).

Oh, and Crist's 2016 presidential ambitions? He can just forget about it.

2009-12-15T13:42:00.002-05:00

Eric Forcade's Blueprint

Eric Forcade is not, currently, a serious candidate for the 10th Congressional District. He is not likely to become a serious candidate for the 10th Congressional District.

But...

There is always a "but," isn't there?

Forcade is no Ron Paul or Marco Rubio - he will not be able to raise the kind of money you'd expect to need to defeat Bill Young.

So why the "but?"

Because Young is not young (he turns 79 tomorrow - happy birthday, Bill!) and has never been known as an aggressive campaigner - someone who enjoys the battle.

If Forcade is committed to running an aggressive and smart campaign that focuses on the the GOP primary base, he can cause Young some real trouble and potentially force young to tack to the right (something he has already been doing - though he still loves his congressional pork).

Republican clubs, tea party groups, facebook, and twitter and some aggressive doorknocking and just enough money to drop a little bit of targeted mail on some disaffected GOP'ers...

I don't actually expect Forcade to mount a serious challenge - even if he does everything right, it will likely require him the thread the needle to even reach the 30s. But, the blueprint exists - especially because no one really knows how Young will respond to an aggressive and early challenge ("early" being key, as well - Young almost certainly has it in him to for a hard campaign that lasts from mid-September through November 2nd, but it is not clear if he has the endurance for fight that lasts from January 1st through November 2nd).

2009-12-14T14:23:00.002-05:00

Press Releases

I'm going to comment on something Peter posted here.

Peter implies (though does not openly say) that Mitch did something wrong or stupid here, but Kenneth is absolutely right. Any paper sent out by the campaign (including press releases) has to have the "paid for by" on it somewhere. While there may be some folks who will enjoy a little bit of schadenfreude to see Mitch stumble a little, I can't blame him for getting a little miffed at the paper's response.

His failure, as has been pointed out, was a failure to do his homework, as regards that particular publication. He should have seen that his candidate had been ignoring interview requests before including them on this press list.

Press releases and press conferences can, in my mind, take up too much of a campaign's time. I believe in sending out plenty of press releases, but I also believe that the average press release is just tossing something out and seeing if it sticks - and most things don't stick. That's why when I see kitchen cabinets spending a long time crafting the perfect language, I get frustrated - it's not a good use of time to spend a lot of it on something that will get minimal attention.

In fact, if you are commenting on something timely, it is better to get something out that quickly (provided it is on message) than to craft the perfect, pithy comment that doesn't get out until later in the news cycle.

2009-12-10T17:44:00.004-05:00

Twitter

I have, at long last, joined Twitter.

But, I feel kind of bad about that.

I don't expect to be constantly twittering - even with only 140 characters, I don't have that much to say an hourly basis - but if you're interest, I'm at TBCampaignMgr.

My only posting so far is a necessarily brief musing on HD 58. Congratulations are in order for Rep. Michael Scionti (see photo), but on to the politics.

"Coach" Bob Henriquez held this seat before, if I recall.

Democratic candidates have been quick to jump in, but so far no Republicans. Scionti won handily in 2006, but that was also a wave election. We'll see if the Republicans make a good faith effort to contest this seat or not (the party is a little distracted, between Crist struggling to put down Rubio, Greer beset by scandal and rumor, and McCollum doing his usual thing, which is underachieving - so they might be forgiven for letting this slide).

Finally, don't expect Scionti to be gone forever - in fact, I would see him as a future candidate for statewide office in Florida or as a strong congressional candidate, should Congresswoman Castor run for higher office.

2009-11-19T23:02:00.003-05:00

The Two Primaries That Will Define the GOP

The two elections are approaching that will determine the future of the GOP. The first if is the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania and the Republican primary for the U.S. Senate right here in Florida.

If former Speaker Marco Rubio upsets Gov. Charlie Crist (something that suddenly seems much more real than it did even one month ago), the message will be clear - perceived moderates will be punished and "size" (an incumbent governor versus a former state legislator) is not protection.

The flip side is occurring in Pennsylvania. If Senator Arlen Specter - who switched parties when it became clear that the GOP primary electorate had moderates like him behind - successfully navigates the Democratic primary against Congressman Joe Sestak, that message is also clear - the Democratic primary electorate will accept and support former Republicans who run as moderate or conservative Democrats.

If both these races play out in the above fashions, look for more embattled Republicans facing primary challenges from their ideological right to choose apostasy over being "Scoffazza-ed" or, as we say in Florida, "Rubio-ed."

P.S. Thank you to all the well wishers - I did win both my races on November 3rd.

2009-10-17T11:19:00.002-05:00

Not Florida Related, But Just One of the Worst Things I Have Seen Come Out of a Political Campaign and That Includes the Time I Saw a Legislative Candidate Walk in a Parade While Wearing a Wet T-Shirt - What I Mean to Say Is That We Need to Shame Oxendine For Having Made This Monstrosity

2009-10-08T13:58:00.002-05:00

Absentee ballots

Times have definitely changed and Election Day means less and less – or rather, Election Day is now more like Election Month. The first Tuesday after the first Monday in November is no longer the day you can vote, it is merely the last day you are allowed to vote.

Washington (state) has gone to 100% vote by mail. California sees roughly 1/3 of votes cast one week before the election and that is fast becoming the case in Florida.

Though Peter Schorsch recently claimed that “[he] was one of the very first consultants in Florida to recognize the value of tracking ‘absentee ballot requesters,’" I will have to be more than a little skeptical of such a claim – not that I can claim it for myself, but that I can remember the late, great Linda Hennessey coming down to South Florida in 2000 to educate several campaigns about working an aggressive absentee ballot campaign, which makes Peter’s claim more than a little unlikely, unless he was advising Al Gore or George W. Bush ten years ago.

But, absentee ballots do change everything.

They change when and how GOTV takes place.

For many smaller candidates, enacting a massive campaign to sign up people for absentee ballots does not make sense as an investment. The key investment is tracking and chasing those people who have already requested absentee ballots. They are VERY likely voters and it is foolish to let them slip away without some form of contact from your campaign.

Absentee ballots also change the timing of when direct mail starts – moving it earlier. Typically, you would backload a direct mail campaign – with one a week until the last 10-14 days, when you would drop four pieces. Now, with up to 1/3 of the vote gone 7-10 days before the election, do you change your mail schedule.
There are no easy answers here (believe me – candidates in Washington state still struggle to get the timing right).

2009-09-21T17:08:00.001-05:00

Your most important investment

What is the single most important investment you can make if you are a local candidate running for office?

Your website? Nope.

Your yard signs? Heck no!

Your palm card? You’re getting closer.

It’s your voter file.

Without a voter file, you’re just driving in the dark without your headlights.

In its cheapest, a voter file is just an excel spreadsheet of voters in your district that you got from the county.

In its best form, you actually go to a voter file vendor, including the VAN (Voter Activation Network), Catalist, or Political Data Systems and get a real database of voters that you can manipulate into a useful form and that has additional, value added data, like precinct level NCEC data or data modeling functions.

With a good voter file, you can make the best of your time going door to door, asking for your support.

Without a good voter file, not only are you not making the best use of your time, you are not able to craft a realistic campaign plan that leads you from point A to 50% + 1 votes.

2009-09-08T14:28:00.002-05:00

National Blog Props for Local Political Scribe

No, not me – I’m talking about Adam Smith.

For whatever it is worth, the Washington Post's the Fix has picked the St. Pete Times' Adam Smith as the best political reporter in Florida.

Make of that what you will, but it is, at least, reassuring that our hometown paper retains some national cachet, especially since the Tampa Bay area remains the center of our little universe.

2009-09-02T11:21:00.002-05:00

Lessons from the St. Petersburg City Elections

Old fashioned politics matter. Not just facebook and twitter and websites, but boots on the ground.

People who win by huge margins usually do so because they run like they are 20 points behind in the polls.

Name recognition matters. Ford and Foster came first and second because people knew who they were. Gibbons and Wagman came into this election with a lot of internet buzz and chatter, but without wide name recognition among the voters.

Unions matter. Would Foster have come in second if he couldn’t have hitched his anti-crime platform to his endorsement by the PBA? Would Ford have been able to start her campaign so late in the game if she couldn’t have counted on the active support of the Firefighters? In case you’re wondering, those were both rhetorical questions and the short answer is no.

These thoughts come from afar, since I am not on the ground in St Pete, so feel free to take them with a grain of salt.

2009-08-31T09:20:00.003-05:00

To the Contrary, Mr. Schorsch...

To the contrary, Mr. Schorsch, I think that that wreckage left behind in the mayoral race should keep you in the running for best troublemaker.

2009-08-25T13:21:00.001-05:00

Too Early

I’ve been hearing that a lot lately. When you’re working on an election that takes place in November, and you’re busting your hump to make it a victory one of the most frustrating things you can hear is “It’s too early,” which is usually followed by something like “people aren’t even paying attention yet.” If you’re really lucky, you will be given some suspect little anecdote about how campaigning, especially canvassing, before Labor Day directly led to someone losing an election.

To be clear – this is utter c - - p.

We’ve gone over this before, how time is the one resource you can never get back.
By putting off hard core campaigning until some arbitrary date, you are merely throwing away your most valuable resource. But anyone who has done more than a few campaigns has gotten this same, ridiculous lecture. Sometimes, a particularly destructive person will even try to interfere with your efforts – going to campaign meetings and publicly trashing the idea of campaigning before Labor Day or sending out emails to all their friends in the area explaining why no campaigning should be taking place until this arbitrary date has passed.

Let me be perfectly clear – you are not starting too early. Chances are, unless your started in January of the year before your election, you have are actually getting off to a late start. Your campaign “begins” the minute you know you are standing before the electorate. Putting off the actual business of campaigning is quite simply procrastination.

2009-08-02T11:19:00.003-05:00

Notes from a Tampa Bay Expat

The rain is coming down hard and the danger of lightning has basically scuttled my canvass for the day. Nothing to do but sit in the local coffeehouse (no alcohol - I'm still on the clock) and finish some paperwork until I hit the rubber chicken circuit (or chicken bbq circuit to be precise) later this afternoon.

Not that it doesn't rain every day in Tampa Bay, too, but I do miss home right now.

I have been advising on the side with a county candidate running over here about some basic field tactics.

We first went over some basic scheduling - this candidate had been hitting her home community, too often. This was a mistake because she should already have her home community locked up. They know her well and it's a heavily Democratic town. The turnout is low, relative to the rest of the county, so her focus should be on the 50/50 precincts and communities. As the second half of October rolls around, then she should focus on those areas that are her base - whether because she lives there or because they are naturally Democratic leaning. Until then, it's all about the undecided voters.

I also went into tracking results. I keep track of every door a candidate, canvasser or volunteer hits. I have a plan for reaching my goals and it is very important to know how close I am hitting it.

Why? First of all, as my old boss used to say, "that which gets measured, get done."

Secondly, if you're not reaching your goals, your plan may have to be revised. It's important to have a plan for victory premised on what you can actually accomplish. If you're surpassing your goals, you want to expand your universe, but you don't want to just do it randomly - there's a reason it's called a "plan" not "random collection of notes, lists, and excel spreadsheet printouts."

2009-07-17T07:53:00.002-05:00

New Campaign

I just joined a campaign outside of the Tampa Bay area, so my posting will be even more intermittent than usual for the next few months, but I will attempt to keep this blog updated - probably by continuing to write tips and thoughts about the nuts and bolts of executing a campaign.

In the meantime, wish me luck!

2009-07-09T12:24:00.002-05:00

Timing

They say timing is everything.

Generally speaking, “they” are correct.

In politics, paid media is all about timing. Absentee ballots just started dropping (not meaning that they are arriving today, but that they have been given to the post office for delivery today). Smart campaigns will usually drop a mail piece aimed at absentee voters either the same day as ballots start dropping or sometimes the day before – the object being for them to arrive at more or less the same time, so that no one has a chance to fill out their ballot before they’ve gotten at least one paid media contact.

Other key aspects involve trying to hit voters right before the election, which means trying to time your last mail drop so that they arrive the Monday before a Tuesday election. I tend to like to drop them Thursday. It increases the chance that it arrive on Saturday (or even Friday), but also decreases the chance that it doesn’t get there until Wednesday.

Television and radio are a little different. As a rule, when you go up on TV (or radio), you want to stay up until the election is over. Which means, if you only have the budget for two weeks of cable, you only start running those ads two weeks before the election.

There are some exceptions. For example, to defend one’s self against an attack or to launch a timely attack around a recent issue, you might want to break out of the traditional schedule long enough to run an attack or defense. Sometimes a challenger may want to run a week or so worth of ads early to make a statement – it’s a clear way of saying, “I’m here and I’m a legitimate threat to the incumbent that the media, voters and donors need to take seriously.” Similarly, an incumbent facing a hard re-election might make want to make an early statement to show their strength or define their opponent early in the race. Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd is an example of an embattled incumbent who ran some ads early to try to revive his battered image well early.

Deveron Gibbons recently bought some cable for the St Pete mayoral race. Though not privy to his campaign team’s thoughts, my best guess is that they are looking at their fundraising and institutional support and seeing that it does not match their strength in the polls. They could be afraid of seeing that financial and institutional support slip if they aren’t showing that it can translate into actual votes and they want to make a show of intent. It can also perform the same function as the direct mail, in the sense that the timing of the buy coincides with the days right before and just after absentee ballots drop. I don’t expect him to keep cable ads running continuously through the election, but instead that he will save resources for another, larger buy as we approach Election Day.

2009-07-07T11:55:00.001-05:00

Robocall Universes

I have done robocalls. I have a good friend who is a phone vendor (live calls and robocalls). I’d be happy to recommend his firm to you.

But, their value is very narrow.

We all know that Scott Wagman and Jamie Bennett have done robocalls in the St. Pete mayoral race. Each of them was delivering a persuasion message, by which I mean, a message that seems intended to turn an undecided voter into a likely voter.

I am not a big fan of persuasion robocalls, to be frank, but let’s look at some universes that might make sense.

The election is sooner than you think and ability of voters to ask to receive absentee ballots for future elections during the last presidential election means that universe of people who will receive absentee ballots as gone through the roof. This makes it very expensive to contact them all.

Potentially, a robocall to a subset of absentee voters makes sense. For Wagman, this might include Democrats who are receiving an absentee ballot, but who traditionally only vote in Presidential elections. In other words, a group that might vote this year, but are less likely to vote than other people receiving absentee ballots and whose party affiliation matches Wagman’s. The campaign might decide it wants to make some effort to reach out to these voters, but doesn’t want to spend a lot of money on them, because they are still less likely to vote than many other universes.

Just my initial thoughts on this issue.

2009-07-02T09:56:00.000-05:00

Billboards

Caveat – I have never been a big fan of billboards.

But looking objectively, let’s ask ourselves, what do billboards?

Basically – they put your name (and usually your face up there) up there in big letters for people to see. Do billboards have persuasion message to convince undecided voters?

Not really. Yes, you might have something like “John Doe: Working to Bring Jobs to Florida” or “Jane Doe: Standing Up Florida.” But no on is persuaded by that – no one says, “Gee whiz, John Doe is in favor of bringing jobs to Florida and I hear that his opponent is for massive unemployment” or “Wow, golly gee! Jane Doe will stand up for Florida, but her evil, mean opponent wants to stand up for Georgia, even though he’s running for office in Florida!”

You could put a 10 point plan up on billboard, but no one will be able to read it – at least not without risking a serious traffic accident.

So really, all a billboard does is put your name out there. How does that help? Easy – if you have low name recognition, billboards are one way to increase it.

But let’s get down to brass tacks, shall we?

What are we really talking about? St. Pete Councilman and mayoral candidate Jamie Bennett has purchased three billboards.

Was this a good decision?

In my honest opinion, no.

This race will probably have relatively low turnout. I say that because a recent poll show 61% of voters are undecided. Undecided voters are much less likely to vote. Also, such a low number of voters who have picked candidates suggests a very low level of enthusiasm and engagement (and supporters of the various candidates - please feel free not to flood my email with outraged cries about how your horse in the race actually has very enthused supporters, because you understand what I mean and besides, my feelings are easily hurt).

In a low turnout race, name recognition is less of a factor because only the more engaged voters – those voters most likely to know who the candidates are – tend to come out.

Bennett, as a sitting, two term councilman who has gotten a lot press during this election, should already be reasonably well known to many likely voters. Bennett’s problem is that much of the press (primarily focused on his campaign staff) has been bad.

He doesn’t need to increase his name recognition, he needs to improve his favorability among voters who already know who he is – and billboards will do almost nothing to help.

Billboards tend to be pricey and it is questionable whether this is a good use of money. For Bennett’s sake, I hope that this has not affected his ability to run an aggressive direct mail campaign (7-10 pieces).

Do billboards make sense for anyone in this race?

Arguably, Scott Wagman and Deveron Gibbons, who each have strong institutional support, but have never held elected office and are also sufficiently well funded to (perhaps) purchase billboards and still run persuasion media, like mail and even cable television.

2009-07-01T13:39:00.002-05:00

Crist Doesn't Have Much Room for Growth

It’s all wishful thinking by the left right now, but Dailykos posits a hypothetical situation wherein Charlie Crist pulls an Arlen Specter or a Joe Lieberman and either switches to the Democratic primary (a la Specter) of goes independent (a la Lieberman).

Why would the incredibly popular, well tanned, handsome, and sensitive Republican governor switch parties?

The Club for Growth is very close to endorsing Marco Rubio. While that may not mean a lot to the average voter, let me just say that the Club for Growth is almost singlehandedly responsible for Specter switching parties.

They are the biggest, baddest bundler of donations of hardline, anti-tax conservatives in the nation. The money the raised brought Specter within a hair’s breadth of losing to Rep. Toomey in 2004 and turned Toomey into the unassailable leader in Pennsylvania’s GOP primary, driving Specter to switch parties.

Most of you probably saw the poll that shows Crist and Rubio in a statistical dead heat among voters who know who both candidates are (Rubio has relatively low name recognition statewide). The fact is, the Club for Growth and the endorsement of national Republicans like Mike Huckabee (who can help Rubio among evangelical Republicans) have the potential to introduce Republican voters statewide to Rubio.

Crist’s problem is that he already very well known. He’s polling at just over 50%, which is good (you'd still rather by Crist than Rubio right now), but he also has no where to go but down. He’s been in statewide office for years – as Governor, as Attorney General, and as Commissioner of Education. Voters know who he is. The only surprises that GOP primary voters are likely to discover about him is just how bad the budget situation has gotten under his watch and how much worse it is likely to become.

I don’t think that Crist is likely to leave the Republican Party – but I don’t think he campaign handlers are any illusions that this will be the cakewalk en route to the 2016 presidential election that they’d hoped for.

2009-06-30T11:35:00.002-05:00

Poll Numbers Cause for Worry for the Tan Man

Charlie Crist can’t be pleased about these poll numbers. Yes, he’s got a solid lead. Yes, it’s much better, right now, to Charlie Crist than it is to be Marco Rubio. But…

There’s always a “but.”

The popular, sitting governor is barely over fifty percent against a man who is currently out of office and represented less than 1% of the voting population when he was in office (yes, yes – I know he was Speaker of the Florida House, but let’s be honest – no one in Florida would even know who Sasnom and Cretuel are, if a grand jury hadn’t indicted Sansom).

What Charlie doesn’t want is a spirited and moderately well funded campaign by Rubio that forces him to veer to the right in order to get through the Republican primary. He will always be a strong favorite in the general, but he knows that his support among independents and even Democrats is dependent upon his moderate image. If he has to tack right, that moderate image is going to take a hit and he’s going to find himself in much closer race in the general election.

The poll also makes clear something that has been true for a long time – Crist’s support has never been very fervent. It is more of the “a mile wide and inch deep” variety. He simply does not inspire the devotion and strong feelings that Jeb did. Voters like Charlie – they like him a lot. But they don’t “like like” him. And if someone sexier comes along, well… Charlie was always just a friend, so voters feel ok dumping him for someone else. Up until now, the tan man has always been sexy enough that this wasn’t a problem. But Rubio is young, charismatic, and his ideology is a lot more in line with the average Republican primary voter.

Now, I’m not taking my money out of t-bills and putting it all down Rubio at a Seminole Indian casino. I’m just saying that things have gotten tricky for man who, over the last few years, has become used things coming easily to him.

2009-06-25T11:08:00.000-05:00

St. Pete Times Finds a Buyer for CQ

CQ, a boutique publication serving government employees, trade associations, and lobbying groups in Washington, DC, looks like it has finally found a buyer in the similarly “inside the beltway”-focused publication, Roll Call (actually, the buyer is Roll Call’s parent company, The Economist Group).

Why is this news? Because CQ is owned by the Poynter Institute, the non-profit foundation that manages the St. Petersburg Times. It is no secret that papers – including the Times, are struggling.

CQ has actually been profitable for the Poynter Institute (specialty publications have generally fared better than general interest publications like traditional dailies). Clearly, they have decided that the immediate infusion of cash is more vital to the long term prospects of the Times, than maintaining a distant, albeit profitable, publication in DC.

Though I have often been critical of the Times, let me just say (without getting into a philosophical discussion of the long-term prospects of the daily newspaper industry) that I would be deeply saddened to lose them and hope that this gamble pays off.